Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) The stronger than expected increase in September's manufacturing sales bodes well for monthly GDP growth, which we estimate at 0.2% m/m. As such, we have revised up third-quarter GDP growth, from 2.5%... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) It is becoming quite clear that the economy has a decent amount of momentum that should help it cope, at least for now, with any adverse effects emanating from Europe. Annualised GDP growth in the... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The growth rate of money has levelled out over the past couple of months, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year. 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fussing over federal finances is misplaced We agree that the federal government will take longer than previously thought to return to budgetary balance but, really, so what? Considering that the primary federal budget is already balanced and... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Disturbing decline in demand for loans Prime Minister Noda’s announcement on Friday that Japan would join negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement is a step in the right direction. Not only would the pact open up... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's international trade data confirm that net exports were a big positive for third-quarter economic growth, which we now estimate at 2.5% annualised. Although there are good reasons to not... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The narrowing in the trade deficit in September suggests that annualised third-quarter GDP growth may be revised up from 2.5% to perhaps 2.8%. But a slowdown in overseas activity means the external... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Why we differ from the consensus outlook We have below-consensus forecasts for Canadian interest rates and economic growth next year. The main reasons for the difference relates to our bearish views on rest-of-world economic growth... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Price falls starting to gather pace again The latest evidence suggests that the stabilisation in house prices seen over the summer is giving way to further price falls. In September, our seasonally adjusted measure of the CoreLogic index fell... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Labour's share of income and the outlook for US equities Labour’s share of income in the US nonfarm business sector hit its lowest level since at least 1947 in Q3 according to data released last Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (See Chart 1... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Shadow inventory to keep supply high for foreseeable future Estimates of the shadow inventory vary, but by our calculations more than four million homes are waiting in the wings and will eventually add to the supply of properties for sale. That will prevent a... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia-US trade agreement could ease Dutch Disease News that the Free Trade Agreement between Colombia and the US has finally been signed is clearly positive. Not only should the pact boost trade between the two nations, but the elimination of tariffs... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks batten down the European hatches The Fed's Senior Loan Officer survey shows that in the three months to October banks took steps to protect themselves from the European debt crisis. Nevertheless, the survey is still consistent with a... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The acceleration in the rate at which the CoreLogic house price index is falling reflects the slowing in the pace of job creation and wider economic growth earlier this year. Prices may well fall... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Narrowing in the trade deficit probably temporary The employment figures took a lot of the gloss off the news earlier in the week that monthly GDP growth accelerated back in August. It is clear that even if energy and autos production were enjoying a... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Can the Fed help revive housing? The Fed appears increasingly more determined to help the ailing housing market. Another round of asset purchases focusing on mortgage-backed securities, perhaps in the first half of next year, would... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
