US Economics Update 2012 will be another year of sluggish growth We expect GDP growth of 1.5% for next year, down trivially from about 1.7% this year. Inflation should fall sharply to below 1% by year end, as commodity prices continue to drop back and the... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining household net worth raises red flags For the past decade households have been on a debt-financed consumption and housing investment spree, reinforced recently by historically low interest rates. This trend has been accompanied by rising... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the saving rate higher than it looks? We are not convinced by suggestions that, due to either income being under recorded or based on alternative ways of measuring savings, the true household saving rate is much higher than the published... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices were unchanged in November, held down by a drop back in gasoline and motor vehicle prices. The annual rate of CPI inflation fell only marginally to a still elevated 3.4%, from 3.5%... 16th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response IP/PPI (Nov), Emp St/Phil Fed (Dec), Cur Ac (Q3) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in November is a bit worse than the 0.1% m/m fall we were expecting, but it looks like the floods in Thailand had more of an impact than we had... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global slowdown not the only storm brewing for 2012 As we head into 2012, there still appears to be a sense of misplaced confidence regarding Canada's economic fundamentals and growth prospects. With the US economy set to slow again and the euro zone... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) The drop-back in manufacturing volumes, which fell 0.9% m/m in October, suggest that the risk to our monthly GDP growth assumption of 0.1% now lie to the downside. In addition, the decline raises some... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed stands pat for now The Fed put off making changes to its communications strategy and potentially announcing a third round of quantitative easing until the new year. 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The disappointing increase in retail sales in November suggests that the start of the holiday shopping season was not half as strong as retailers’ spectacular Black Friday sales reports suggested... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More regional evidence on house prices New regional house price data show that many metropolitan areas have seen existing house prices rise sharply from already elevated levels this year. We think these facts count towards dispelling the... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slow deleveraging continues The economy's slow deleveraging continued in the third quarter, with total debt falling to a four-year low of 340% of GDP down from a peak of 373% in the first quarter of 2009. 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The decline in the trade deficit in October is unlikely to be sustained, not least as US exports can’t continue to grow at current rates when global demand is weakening. 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) October's international trade data suggest that fourth-quarter exports might be fizzling out faster than anticipated, despite the modest improvements in US economic indicators. The good news is that... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack High credit hurdle hampering housing Housing market activity has improved in recent months, with both new and existing home sales rising in October and homebuilding activity holding on to its previous gains. This has yet to translate... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Domestic demand growth continues to slow After unexpectedly contracting in the second quarter, the economy rebounded in the third quarter, with GDP growth of 3.5% annualised, thanks largely to a big boost from external trade. But given the... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) November’s rise in mortgage applications for home purchase are a glimmer of hope that record low mortgage rates and the improving labour market are finally having some positive effect on housing... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
