US Housing Market Outlook Prices unlikely to rise until 2014 We expect house prices to fall a further 3% this year, resulting in a 5% decline in the year as a whole. Although prices may find a floor some time next year, a chronic lack of demand will probably... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter slowdown Domestic demand growth is losing momentum. To make matters worse, disruptions to auto and energy exporters have further dampened overall economic growth in the second quarter. Although we anticipate... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Misery index hits 28-year high Even though the number of Google searches for "double dip recession" has surged and the old fashioned misery index has increased to a 28-year high, Americans are probably not quite as gloomy as those... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) As most of the sharp fall in housing starts in April was due to the tornados that battered the south of the nation last month, homebuilding activity will probably bounce back in May. That said, at a... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing in Canada Speaking in Vancouver today, the Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney admitted that housing valuations are elevated and hinted that if there were a sudden weakening in the housing sector, then... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won't overreact to signs of slowdown We doubt that the signs of a renewed economic slowdown will prompt any knee-jerk reaction from the FOMC at its two-day policy meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (22 nd June). The accompanying... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Apr.) April's survey of manufacturers showed that sales fell sharply, down 1.3% m/m, primarily due to disruptions in auto production, caused by parts supply shortages from Japan. Taking into account an even... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rate of money, including our own Capital Economics' measure of the M3 aggregate, continued to accelerate in April, mainly in response to the Fed's quantitative easing. But with QE2... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Worse than the Great Depression The sharp fall in house prices in the first quarter provided further confirmation that this housing crash has been larger and faster than the one during the Great Depression. On the Case-Shiller index... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (May) Today's data releases brought more signs of mounting economic weakness and evidence that the upward pressure on inflation is beginning to fade. 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus House Price Indices - What to watch and why For anyone bamboozled by the abundance of house price indices, which can sometimes provide starkly different messages, we consider the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices to be the most useful and... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is housing really in short supply? Over the last ten years, the accumulation of excess new housing inventory, sharp increases in homeownership rates and rising rental vacancy rates have all coincided with a house price boom and a run... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly End of QE2 won't drive Treasury yields higher With the end of QE2 approaching, it is notable that in the first quarter the Fed absorbed all of the net issuance of Treasury debt and then some. Nevertheless, we still believe it is the stock of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) At first glance May's labour force survey appears respectable, with 22,300 jobs added and a material drop in the unemployment rate, from 7.6% to 7.4%. The details, however, are not as encouraging and... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April’s trade data show that, despite a massive drop in imports from Japan, Canada's trade deficit actually widened. The drop in imports, concentrated in Japan and other OECD countries, was... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
