US Economics Weekly Industrial revival won’t last Recent signs that manufacturing activity is going from strength to strength have prompted some hopes that industry will save the economy from another year of pretty weak growth. The problem is that... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) There’s no denying that home sales are still very low and will remain low for a few years. But after having risen in each of the last three months, including a 5.0% m/m gain in December, it is clear... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) December's drop in consumer price inflation, to 2.3% from 2.9%, reflects a trend that is likely to continue this year. As further declines in underlying inflation coincide with slower economic growth... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Early signs that mortgage credit conditions are loosening Credit conditions in the US have stopped tightening and there are signs that they are now loosening. We expect this to continue, supporting home sales and putting a floor under house prices. But any... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) The rebound in November's manufacturing volumes, which rose by 1.7% m/m, more than offset the previous month's decline and points to monthly GDP growth of around 0.3% m/m, which is broadly consistent... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices were unchanged in December and the annual CPI inflation rate declined to 3.0%, from 3.4%. Favourable base effects will generate an even sharper drop in that annual inflation rate over... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) The fall in housing starts in December was driven by a steep decline in the often volatile multi-family sector, while starts of single-family homes actually rose slightly. In any case, December’s fall... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed prepares to step into brave new world The Fed has already announced that it will be making some major changes to its monetary policy framework at the two-day FOMC meeting that concludes next Wednesday (25th January). Those changes will... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Dec) The strong rebound in manufacturing output at the end of last year is encouraging, as is the further decline in producer price inflation. 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still likely to cut rates In its policy statement today the Bank of Canada maintained both its key policy interest at 1% and its wait-and-see policy approach. Although the Bank judges that weaker external factors are offset by... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) While the growth rate of the narrower M1 money aggregate has started to slow a little, M2 growth has remained broadly unchanged and the growth rate of our reconstructed measure of the broadest M3... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Resurgent housing investment cannot be sustained The recent strength in housing activity indicates that housing investment has made a resurgence and is still contributing strongly to GDP growth. Against a bleak global economic backdrop, this... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US economic outlook remains modest at best The recent run of stronger economic data has led to speculation that the US economy could be poised for a good 2012 after all. This is a remarkable turnaround from August last year when speculation... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November's modest rebound in exports reflected more strongly the recovery in Canadian auto production and better US industrial activity. While exports rebounded, imports fell, with the trade deficit... 13th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The widening in the trade deficit in November to a 10-month high is perhaps the first real sign that the crisis in Europe and the more general global slowdown is starting to take its toll on the US. 13th January 2012 · 1 min read
