Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) May's retail sales are another reminder of the negative effects that high energy and rising food prices are having on discretionary consumer spending. Despite the preliminary data showing strong... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What if the US loses its AAA rating? A downgrade of US government debt would not necessarily be disastrous for Treasuries or the dollar, at least once the dust settled. However, it would be the starkest warning yet that the fall-out from... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun.) The surprisingly sharp decline in June's consumer price inflation figures reduces the impetus for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates. Although the decline was perhaps somewhat of an overshoot... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Plenty of deficit reduction plans, but still no agreement An agreement to raise the debt ceiling still appears to be some way off, but not for lack of trying. Every day seems to bring a new deficit reduction plan. With the clock ticking, we doubt there is... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) The further fall in the number of existing home sales in June, to 4.77m from 4.81m in May, suggests that the recent deterioration in economic conditions has already hit the housing market. 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Q2 GDP growth may not be as bad as feared Despite a marked slowdown in consumption growth to less than 1% annualised, it appears that overall GDP growth may actually have picked up a little to 2.3% in the second quarter, from 1.9% in the... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada poised to raise rates? By dropping the qualification in its policy statement this morning that monetary stimulus will only be withdrawn "eventually", the Bank of Canada seems to be posturing to raise rates. Obviously there... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) The 14.6% m/m leap in housing starts in June, to a five-month high of 629,000 from 549,000 in May, is not the start of a significant and sustained surge in homebuilding. Instead, it reflects a rebound... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The annual growth rate of our own Capital Economics measure of the M3 aggregate hit a two-year high of 4.9% in June, while the growth rates of both M1 and M2 continued to rise as well. 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Businesses poised for employee hiring spree? Businesses are poised for an employee hiring spree, judging by the upbeat second quarter Business Outlook Survey results. Among the firms surveyed from late May to mid-June, the balance of opinion on... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How exposed is the US to European debt defaults? The risk that the US government will default on some of its debt obligations lingered last week as the stand-off over the raising of the debt ceiling appeared to intensify. At the same time, it has... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) May's survey of manufacturers showed that sales fell more strongly than most expected, by 0.8% m/m. Weaker volumes were behind this drop, mostly due to temporary factors negatively impacting energy... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) It looks like the annual rate of headline CPI inflation peaked at 3.6% in June, but core inflation edged up to 1.6% last month, from 1.5%, and will continue to climb over the next few months. By the... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Don't read too much into seasonal boost The recent rises in house prices are nothing more than the normal seasonal uplift triggered by the better weather and the end of the school year. After stripping out such seasonal effects, prices on... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Rising financial risks give further reason for pause It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank will not offer any hint of imminent rate hikes, while... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Jun.) The level of retail sales has been pretty much unchanged in the three months to June, suggesting that annualised real consumption growth in the second quarter was just 0.6% and overall GDP growth was... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
