US Fed Watch Fed to delay any action until early next year The announcement last Wednesday, of coordinated action by the Fed, ECB and other central banks to boost global dollar liquidity, will presumably have increased speculation that the Fed could take... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada rate cuts still likely next year The Bank of Canada's intention to hold its policy rate at 1% for the time being does not rule out interest rate cuts early next year. External headwinds are likely to blow even harder next year and... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) After having stabilised during the summer, in the three months to October prices on the CoreLogic index fell at an annualised rate of 7.5%. This is clearly disappointing when the domestic economy... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The future still looks bright for US Treasuries The sharp drop in the US unemployment rate reported on Friday barely ruffled Treasuries. A few more months of such rosy news on the labour market would probably elicit a less sanguine response in the... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What's up with income growth? The recent slowdown in growth of wages and salaries is fairly notable by historical standards. In the third quarter at least, overall personal income growth was also dampened by the effect of lower... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to the rescue? The announcement last Wednesday of coordinated action by the Fed, ECB and other central banks to boost global dollar liquidity certainly had a big impact on financial markets. The announced changes... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The decline in the unemployment rate to a two-and-a-half-year low of 8.6% in November, from 9.0%, is another illustration that the US economy is, for now at least, shrugging off the global economic... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's surprising 18,600 decline in employment, which followed an even greater decline in the month prior, is discouraging to say the least. Given the deepening global financial crisis, an... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) Shrugging off the apparent sharp slowdown in growth in Asia and what looks like a renewed recession in Europe, the ISM manufacturing index rebounded to a five-month high of 52.7 in November, from 50.8... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2011) Canada's better than estimated third-quarter GDP, which grew by 3.5% annualised, was due to one-time stronger external trade figures. Final domestic demand, however, grew at a slower pace than we had... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts - the fall-out from an EMU break-up We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of a change to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up. The new numbers are presented in the table on the next page. There are four main... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The jump in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month high of 56.0 in November, from 40.9 in October, is an encouraging sign given the growing concerns in the euro-zone. 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q3) House prices were still falling in the third quarter and we don’t think that they’ve stabilised in this quarter either. Even when prices do reach their trough, which could be next year, a continued... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada's next move will be to cut policy rate Although the economy most likely rebounded in third quarter, by an estimated 2.9% annualised, it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. The... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) The 1.3% m/m rise in new home sales in October was not especially encouraging given that it came at the expense of a 3.3% downward revision to the previous month’s numbers. More generally, new home... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pick-up in Q3 GDP growth won't be sustained Our calculations suggest that GDP rebounded by almost 3% annualised in the third quarter thanks to a sizable positive contribution from net exports. Unfortunately, that strong contribution from the... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
