US Economics Update How reliable is the Philly Fed index? The plunge in the Philly Fed manufacturing index in August is not a sure-fire sign that a recession is imminent. The ISM index is more reliable. And even if the ISM index were to fall in line with the... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update TIPS close to a tipping point? The yield on US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) is close to zero for bonds maturing in ten years’ time and negative for those with a shorter remaining life. This presumably reflects a... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) The slight pick-up in core consumer price inflation in July will now be of little concern to the Bank of Canada. Considering the global recession fears now gripping markets and lower commodity prices... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) The 3.5% m/m fall in existing home sales in July shows that the housing market will not pull the US economy out of its current malaise. In fact, it appears that the recent economic slowdown has... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) A further rise in core CPI inflation in the coming months will probably prevent the Fed from responding more aggressively to the economic slowdown and latest market turmoil with a third round of asset... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The sharp acceleration in money growth in July is not a result of the Fed's loose monetary policies but instead has been driven by investors moving out of equities and/or Treasuries and into cash... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update New stimulus pledge won’t prevent growth slowdown Canada’s Federal Government has declared that it would be prepared to introduce new stimulus measures, but that it would need to see clear signs of the economy contracting before offering more fiscal... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) The modest fall back in the number of housing starts in July highlights that the housing market will not be able to pull the US economy out of its current funk. In fact, the danger is that the recent... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The healthy 0.9% m/m increase in industrial production in July supports our view that GDP growth in the third quarter will rebound a bit as the adverse effects from the Japanese disaster unwind. But... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jun.) June's survey of manufacturers showed that sales fell more strongly than most had expected, by 1.5% m/m. Weaker volumes were again behind this drop, reflecting the temporary disruptions to auto and... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market hit by weaker economy The failure of home sales to rebound in June after they had been depressed by unusually severe weather may have been an early sign that the recent economic slowdown is restraining housing demand. This... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates? Markets have made a dramatic reassessment of the prospects for monetary, judging by the sharp decline in Overnight Index Swaps rates and Canada Government bond yields. In fact, these rates now suggest... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed may yet need more policy tricks If the experiences of the Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan are anything to go by, the Fed's pledge to keep rates low "at least through mid-2013" supports our new forecast that 10 year Treasury yields... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK on the ratings hit-list? The downgrade of US sovereign debt and speculation that France might be next has prompted renewed questions over the UK’s own credit standing. While a UK downgrade is not an imminent threat, it is... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The rise in retail sales values in July supports our view that there will be at least some rebound in economic growth in the third quarter and that another recession will, in all likelihood, be... 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) Reflecting the growing signs of a global economic slowdown, Canada's merchandise exports fell in June. Even so, there are still good reasons to expect that third-quarter export growth will rebound... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
