Canada Economics Weekly Stronger GDP growth expected this quarter Our calculations suggest that Canada's economy, after growing by 1.8% annualised in the fourth quarter of last year, will grow this quarter by 2.5%. The main reason for this pick-up in economic growth... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Do rising equity prices offset higher gas prices? Households are currently being subjected to a number of diverse and often opposing economic forces, but most will cancel each other out and we still anticipate consumption growth of just above 2% this... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The further fall in new home sales in February was probably driven by the unwinding of the boost to sales activity from the recent unseasonably warm weather. We expect continued employment growth and... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) February's rise in the official core inflation figure, to 2.3% from 2.1%, will possibly elicit talk of higher interest rates to come. Considering the increasing slack in labour markets and moderate... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Future monetary tightening and the prospects for Treasuries There have been seven major monetary policy tightening cycles in the US since the early 1970s. If these are a useful guide, the ten year Treasury yield will start to rise well before the first... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus US will continue to outperform There are reasons to believe that over the next two years the US will perform better than the other major economies. This would build on the trend of the last four years that has seen a disappointing... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s 0.5% m/m increase in retail sales, which was mainly due to sharply higher new vehicle sales, was much weaker than the 2.0% increase we had estimated. The decline in spending elsewhere, which... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The 0.9% m/m fall in existing home sales in February suggests that the boost from the good weather has started to fade. But strong demand from investors and a growing willingness of banks to lend... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The annual growth rates of all the monetary aggregates remained strong in February, with our measure of the broadest M3 aggregate increasing by 6.0% over the past year. With the euro-zone crisis... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation still set to fall The recent rise in gasoline prices won’t prevent inflation from falling, but it will limit just how far and fast it drops. What’s more, evidence of a strengthening in underlying price pressures... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) The slight fall in housing starts in February leaves the recent upward trend broadly intact. Housing starts should rise further later this year on the back of continued employment growth and an... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage rates won’t extinguish the housing recovery There are two reasons why a rise in mortgage rates won’t threaten the housing recovery. First, mortgage rates can rise only so far when tighter monetary policy is still years away. Second, even if... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Biggest downside risk still growing According to fourth-quarter financial flows and balance sheet data, household borrowing continues to expand at a pretty rapid pace. Even though the debt-to-income ratio may have fallen slightly in the... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Current account deficit no concern The widening in the current account deficit to more than 3% of GDP at the end of last year is no big concern. The US has been running deficits of more than 3% of GDP for most of the past dozen years... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big is the Iran premium in oil prices? Estimates of the amount that the tensions between the West and Iran have added to global oil prices range from $5 to $25 per barrel (pb). Our best guess is towards the bottom of this range – perhaps... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) Although the disappointing 1.1% m/m drop in January's manufacturing sales volumes bodes poorly for GDP, the recent surge in auto sales at least points to much stronger retail and wholesale trade... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
