US Economics Weekly Downgrade, default or both? Even if the politicians finally get their act together and agree a deficit reduction package, the resulting spending cuts may not be large enough to appease the credit rating agencies. As such, we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a US default mean for Asia? Policymakers across the region are rightly concerned about the potential consequences of a debt crisis in the US. We believe that the impact on Emerging Asia’s economies of a one or two notch... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending slowdown more abrupt than desired The soft patch in household spending may be more than just a blip, judging by the negative effect high energy prices and rising food prices are having on underlying retail sales. Although we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Default seemingly averted, but downgrade almost certain The latest noises from Washington suggest that politicians are close to reaching a compromise on a deal that will raise the debt ceiling ahead of Tuesday night, thereby preventing a debt default and a... 1st August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2) The poor economic climate, the double dip in house prices, the high number of foreclosures and tight credit conditions are all reasons why the homeownership rate will continue to fall. The flipside... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The disappointing 1.3% annualised rise in GDP in the second quarter and the downward revision in the first quarter suggests that economic growth for 2011 as a whole may fall short of our 2.5% forecast... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Essential points on the US debt crisis The US debt crisis will clearly dominate the agenda in the coming week, so it is worth summarising and expanding on the points we have made so far. In short, we continue to think that the Federal... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What would a US downgrade mean for the dollar? The dollar is initially likely to weaken further if the US loses its AAA credit rating. But we would still expect the US currency to rebound and end the year higher against the euro, sterling and yen. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Rising layoffs hint at more permanent slowdown The fact that the recent slowdown in jobs growth is mostly due to a rise in firings, rather than a fall in hiring, suggests that a rapid rebound in non-farm payroll employment is not imminent. Our... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (June.) The fall in durable goods orders in June confirms that the US economy is still struggling. But the numbers do not alter our estimate that annualised GDP growth in the second quarter was 2.3%, slightly... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are all commodities safe havens? The prices of gold and silver are obvious beneficiaries of the increasing worries about US government debt. But other commodities have also held up rather better than might have been expected... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The slight rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, to 59.5 in July from 57.6 in June, is a bit bizarre given that all the other measures of confidence have recently fallen... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (May/Jun.) May's Case-Shiller house price index suggests that the five-year-long decline in house prices may be more or less over. But with June's new home sales data confirming that housing demand remains... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What if the US defaults? We still think that the US government is unlikely to default on its debt. But if it did, the implications would potentially be far more serious than those that would follow a one or two notch... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Headwinds, tailwinds and monetary policy The key message in the July Monetary Policy Report: short term interest rates will remain unusually low for a considerably lengthy period. In a technical box towards the end of the report, the Bank... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pick-up in GDP growth no thanks to consumers Our calculations suggest that GDP growth accelerated a little to 2.3% annualised in the second quarter, from 1.9% in the first, despite the fact that consumption growth apparently slowed to less than... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
