Canada Economics Weekly What does the euro-zone crisis mean for Canada? The fiscal crisis in the euro-zone is threatening to derail the global economic recovery. Although Canada is a very open economy with exports still accounting for 30% of GDP, shipments to the euro... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is structural unemployment a problem? One reason why wage growth may have not fallen much below 2% could be that the structural unemployment rate has risen by more than most estimates suggest. The extent of skills and location mismatching... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) July's GDP growth of 0.3% m/m provides further evidence that the economy rebounded this quarter, following temporary supply disruptions to industrial production in the previous quarter. This may be of... 1st October 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Businesses reluctant to boost headcounts Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of labour market indicators, suggests that for the second consecutive month the US economy as a whole failed to create any jobs in September. The... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook No real recovery in sight A persistent deficit in demand means that even when house prices finally find a floor, which could happen next year, they won't rebound rapidly. Sustained price gains are unlikely until 2014 at the... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Aug.) August's durable goods orders data suggest that firms did not pull the plug on their investment spending in the wake of the turmoil in the financial markets. This supports our view that annualised GDP... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, which was pretty much unchanged in September, shows that households are just as downbeat as they were last month. With equity prices hardly off... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) The 0.1% m/m rise in Case-Shiller 20-City house prices in July is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained and significant recovery in prices. We still expect prices to fall back a bit later this... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) In a month when both equity prices and confidence plunged and fears of another recession soared, the 2.3% m/m decline in new home sales in August could have been much worse. Nonetheless, in the... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's economy headed for recession? Recession fears and concerns are understandable, considering that second-quarter GDP contracted and monthly import data received thus far hints at falling business investment, which has been a key... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses are cash rich, but reluctant to invest Despite the explosion in Federal government debt, the US economy as a whole has been deleveraging since the financial crisis erupted in 2008. The reduction in debt by the household and financial... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Policymakers running out of options Even if another recession is avoided, the economic recovery is going to remain unusually lacklustre. It seems unlikely that a divided Congress will pass much of President Obama's $450bn stimulus plan... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) Following overly-depressed growth in the second quarter, July's drop in retail sales was weaker than we had expected. Nonetheless, consumer spending growth should still improve this quarter. Judging... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed action will do little to boost economy Operation Twist is a go, albeit with a small twist on the twist. The Fed's announcement today that it will act to extend the average maturity of its Treasury holdings, by buying $400bn of securities... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Given the recent sharp falls in equity prices and consumer confidence, there is a real risk that the 7.7% m/m rise in existing home sales in August will not be sustained. Without a significant surge... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Corporate bonds vs. corporate equities US credit spreads have widened significantly since the end of July. However, corporate bonds have outperformed equities during this period – something we expect to continue over our forecast horizon... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
