US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applic'ns (Feb.) & Negative Equity (Q4) Mortgage applications continued to trend lower in February, underlining the point we've made before that the latest rebound in home sales is being driven almost exclusively by cash buyers and... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Mortgage Applic'ns (Feb.) & Negative Equity (Q4) Mortgage applications continued to trend lower in February, underlining the point we've made before that the latest rebound in home sales is being driven almost exclusively by cash buyers and... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to follow hawkish ECB's lead Despite signs that other central banks may be preparing to tighten policy, we don't expect to see the Fed following suit, either by calling an early halt to QE2 or raising interest rates later this... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What does $100pb oil mean for the US? The rise in the price of oil to above $100 per barrel (pb) will not send the economy back into a recession or push the Fed much closer to tightening policy. Relative to our existing forecasts, the... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing has never been this under-valued The further fall in house prices at the end of last year has made housing look more under-valued relative to income than ever before. (See Chart below.) This appears to be attracting cash buyers and... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 192,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in February is healthy enough, particularly when we take into account the upward revisions to the preceding two months that added an additional 58,000 jobs... 4th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Leading indicator points to modest GDP growth Canadian economic growth improved to 3.3% annualised in Q4 from 1.8% in Q3. The composite leading indicator points to more modest growth of around 2% annualised over the first-half of this year. Over... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cash won't be king for forever The fact that the recent rebound in existing home sales has been predominantly driven by cash buyers and investors places a question mark over the sustainability of that rebound. The concern is that... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains cautious The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning signalled that it is in no rush to raise interest rates, stressing as before that "any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manu. Index (Feb.) & Bernanke's Testimony Even though the ISM manufacturing index increased to a seven-year high in February, in his semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered no hint that he... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 National Economic Accounts) The rebound in GDP growth to 3.3% annualised in the fourth quarter, from growth of 1.8% in the third, confirms that the economy regained some lost momentum late last year. Still, we forecast that... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget fight could get nasty The growing spat surrounding the possibility of a Federal government shutdown and the debate over raising the debt ceiling could turn out to be nothing more than old-fashioned political theatre, with... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could we see a US rate hike this year? The markets will be watching for any signs of a shift in tone in Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to Congress this week. Despite signs that the economic recovery is gathering momentum... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rebound as weather effects are reversed After having been depressed by the unseasonably heavy snowfall in January, we anticipate that payroll employment rebounded by about 250,000 in February. The underlying story, though, is one in which... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch No interest rate hikes this year It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank is unlikely to change its stance on monetary... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) & House Prices (Q4) The outlook for new home sales will remain bleak as long as foreclosed homes can be snapped up at heavily discounted prices. Meanwhile, by excluding many foreclosed sales, the FHFA index may not be... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
