Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's modest 11,900 increase in employment, mostly among younger workers, still suggests that the economy is struggling to generate any material improvement in broader labour market conditions... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Third-quarter GDP growth won't be sustained After being hit by floods and a major labour union strike at the end of the second quarter, Canada's economy rebounded sharply at the start of the third. For the third quarter as a whole, we now... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed minutes point to December taper, but that was pre-shutdown The minutes from the contentious FOMC meeting last month reveal that despite the decision to delay the tapering of its asset purchases, which was described as a "relatively close call", "most" Fed... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Filling in the data gaps Some of the less well-known private sector alternatives to the official statistical releases, which have been suspended for the duration of the Federal government shutdown, suggest that the economy... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How serious is the threat to housing from the shutdown? The Federal shutdown is so far proving to be an inconvenience, rather than a show stopper, for the housing market recovery. But the shutdown may become more problematic if the deadline for raising the... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing to hold back economy As the export recovery is further delayed and housing activity softens, we expect Canada's economy to continue to struggle over the next two years. After growing by 1.6% this year, we forecast annual... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response NFIB Small Business Survey (Sep.) September’s NFIB survey suggests that small businesses became more downbeat on the prospects for the economy ahead of the Federal government shutdown. The longer the shutdown continues, the more... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) & Housing Starts (Sep.) The unexpected widening of the trade deficit in August suggests that net trade will remain largely neutral for third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate to be 2.0% annualised. With export volumes... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market confidence taking a knock Mortgage interest rates are declining following the Fed’s decision not to taper in September. But most of the housing data continue to reflect the earlier hike in rates. Housing market confidence has... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown could continue until debt ceiling deadline Congress appears to be no closer to resolving the now week-old government shutdown. Our best guess is that a comprehensive agreement will be reached sometime close to the 17th October debt ceiling... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pent-up demand for new motor vehicles nearly exhausted The record new motor vehicle sales streak this year mainly reflects the ongoing unwinding of pent-up demand. With some pent-up demand still remaining, vehicle purchases are likely to improve somewhat... 4th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update On shutdown costs and the timing of a possible default The furloughing of 800,000 Federal employees, as part of the government shutdown that began today, will reduce spending by roughly $155 million per day. Over a whole year, the cost would be equivalent... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US government shutdown shouldn't hurt Canada The US government shutdown should not have a material negative impact on Canada's economy. But if this political deadlock is any indication of how US policymakers will handle the much more important... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The further increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a 29-month high of 56.2 in September, from 55.7, reflects the recent improvement in both domestic and overseas economic conditions. While this... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Shutdown only the opening act in budget negotiations The economic impact of the Federal shutdown that began today all depends on how long it drags on and, in particular, whether the acrimonious stand-off in Congress spills over into the negotiations to... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug. 13) CoreLogic house prices for August paint a picture of a market that is losing some steam. Even so, there is little sign that higher mortgage interest rates are threatening to derail the housing... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
