US Economics Weekly Recovery slowly gathering momentum as fiscal drag fades The incoming data suggest that labour market conditions remain soft, but the wider economic recovery does appear to be strengthening, as the severity of the fiscal drag begins to fade. Admittedly, our... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The unexpected rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half-year high of 56.4 in October, from 56.2, suggests that manufacturers weren't notably affected by the government shutdown. The... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus EU trade deal would provide only modest benefits The Canadian government's new free trade agreement with the EU, should it be ratified, will provide only modest economic benefits. Since this ratification will take a year or two, the trade deal does... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Aug.) The stronger than expected 0.3% m/m increase in August GDP suggests that the economy grew by close to 2.5% annualised in the third quarter, stronger than our previous estimate of 2.0%. But since much... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has the outlook for existing home sales changed? The drop in the pending home sales numbers for September suggests that the immediate outlook for existing home sales is weak. We have therefore revised down our whole-year forecasts for 2013. The... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Accounting for the government shutdown The Federal government shutdown won't have had a major bearing on payroll employment, which we estimate rose by around 140,000 in October. But it will have put a dent in the alternative household... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed waits for the fog to clear The latest policy statement from the Fed today is remarkable for what it omits rather than includes. There is no explicit mention of the government shutdown or what impact it might have on the economy... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update The truth probably lies in between the survey evidence Depending on which of the survey measures you believe, either the economic recovery is about to take off or fade away completely. The fundamentals, however, suggest that the truth probably lies... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & ADP Payrolls (Oct.) The decline in CPI inflation in September and signs of weaker jobs growth in October support the now widespread view that the Fed won’t begin to taper its monthly asset purchases until next year. 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The sharp drop in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a six-month low of 71.2 in October, from 80.2, probably reflects the impact from the shutdown. (The survey period ended on... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Aug.) The solid rise in the Case-Shiller house price index confounded expectations from some corners that price growth was set to slow further in August. But it does not rule out a slowdown in house price... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures suggest that consumption growth gained momentum at the end of the third quarter. And the government shutdown is unlikely to have changed the picture too much at the... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Industrial production gained some momentum in September and, once the hit from the government shutdown has passed, industry should be supported by the modest global recovery and the fall in the dollar... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Can America's debt problem be solved? It's ironic that the recent government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis came at a time when America's debt situation is improving. Over the next decade, a combination of faster GDP growth and only a... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Capacity constraints won't threaten higher inflation for years In addition to downgrading its economic outlook last week and postponing when it expects the economy to return to full capacity until late 2015, the Bank of Canada also lowered its estimate of... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What's behind the slowdown in jobs growth? A satisfactory explanation for the easing in jobs growth is hard to find, but a fading of the fiscal drag and a further pick up in overseas demand means it probably won’t be sustained for long. We... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
