Global Markets Update Market implications of a shift in the Fed’s financial repression There is growing speculation that when the Fed eventually announces a tapering of its asset purchases, it will simultaneously lower its unemployment rate threshold. A commitment to keep rates lower... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Income inequality is not holding the economy back The rise in income inequality may not be morally defensible or socially desirable but, for now at least, it doesn't appear to be restraining economic growth. 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian oil prices should bounce back soon The capacity constraints affecting cross-border pipelines and outages at major US refineries have caused a backup in Canadian oil inventories, temporarily depressing Canadian oil prices. But as these... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Moving the goal posts could dent the Fed's credibility Lowering the unemployment rate threshold would appear to be a neat way for the Fed to commit to leaving interest rates at near-zero for longer and perhaps offset any tightening in financial conditions... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's moderate 13,200 increase in employment, which was only slightly above the consensus estimate of 11,000, is further evidence that the economy is struggling to produce any material improvement... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The much bigger than expected 204,000 gain in October's non-farm payrolls, combined with a cumulative 60,000 upward revision to the gains in the two preceding months will mostly definitely increase... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The further drop in the University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence to a two-year low of 72.0 in November, from 73.2, is hard to explain given that the government reopened, the labour market... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The pick-up in third-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised, from 2.0%, was largely due to a bigger than expected boost from inventory accumulation, which added 0.8% points to the headline figure. At... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Energy rebound boosts third-quarter GDP growth Canada's economic growth appears to have accelerated to close to 2.5% annualised in the third quarter, the fastest pace in two years, thanks partly to a rebound in energy production. With other... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 13) The latest dip in mortgage approvals offers further evidence of a moderation in the rate of the housing recovery. But if the wider economic recovery picks up speed next year as we expect, mortgage... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the Fed taper be a game-changer? The question of exactly when the US Fed will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has understandably been the focus of much analysis and speculation (including by ourselves). There are six... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership and Vacancy Rate (Q3 13) The homeownership rate ticked up in the third quarter of the year. But the recent drop in home sales and mortgage demand, as well as the fact that the rise was driven by older households, suggests... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Limited upside for the US stock market The US stock market has performed strongly since the end of August, with the S&P 500 posting a total return of nearly 9%. However, we think the index will struggle to make further headway and forecast... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep. 13) The CoreLogic house price index suggests that the recent easing in house price pressures went into reverse during September. But with signs that the rise in interest rates has had a more pronounced... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising borrowing costs hit demand for loans The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that even though banks are still prepared to increase the supply of credit, the recent surge in long-term borrowing costs has undermined the demand... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's descent not over The recent pullback in the Canadian dollar owes more to weaker domestic fundamentals rather than volatile commodity prices. With domestic economic conditions likely to remain sluggish through next... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
