Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) Canada's robust 0.6% m/m rebound in July suggests that the economy had more momentum at the start of the third quarter than we had previously thought. Accordingly, it now looks like the economy grew... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending splurge might continue The household spending splurge that prevented what would have otherwise been a poor economic showing last quarter may have been repeated this quarter. Although higher prices of food and transportation... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly This is no way to run a country Even if Congress can reach an agreement to renew the Federal government's spending authority before it expires this Monday, which is looking increasingly unlikely, there is a much more serious battle... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Could we be in for an upside payrolls surprise? The news of a modest 169,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, and the downward revision that cut July's gain to only 104,000, undoubtedly played a key role in the Fed's surprising decision to... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business survey suggests steady Q3 GDP growth In spite of the modest drop back in September, the CFIB's small business confidence suggests that annualised GDP growth in the third quarter is likely to match second-quarter’s 1.7% gain. This... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Expectations for second-half GDP growth too optimistic At slightly more than 2.0%, the latest consensus forecast for third-quarter annualised GDP growth looks too strong to us. Partly because of large negative carry-over effects from the second quarter... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Household net worth continues to rebound The Federal Reserve's latest financial accounts show that households continued to deleverage in the second quarter, while the increase in public sector debt was the smallest since the financial crisis... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug. 13) New home sales did not fully reverse July’s unexpectedly sharp drop. But August’s data seem consistent with our view that the rise in mortgage interest rates seen over recent months will cool, but not... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of yet another US debt-ceiling crisis The prospect of a US Federal government shutdown is likely to undermine equity prices further in the coming days, despite the possibility that the resulting uncertainty could prevent the US central... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The slightly better than expected 0.1% m/m rise in durable good orders in August is largely explained by an inexplicably small decline in commercial aircraft bookings. Otherwise, the modest rebounds... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery appears to be gathering pace The Fed's apparently isn't convinced yet, but the improvement evident in many of the key forward-looking indicators suggests that economic growth is accelerating. The surge in both the manufacturing... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The recovery in July's retail sales volumes confirms that the economy rebounded from the dip in June. We suspect that GDP rebounded by 0.3% m/m in July, although we still think that GDP growth for the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The modest drop in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 79.7 in September, from 81.8, reflects a combination of higher interest rates and lower equity prices... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Jul. 13) The latest rise in the annual rate of house price inflation in July may be the most eye-catching part of today’s Case-Shiller house price report. But the real story is a welcome slowdown in the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update New home prices set to slow by more than existing home prices House price growth for new-build homes is set to slow more quickly than price growth for the existing housing stock over the next year, cutting into the price premium attached to a new home. 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy far from turning corner We think the Bank of Canada Governor's recent postulation about the economy turning the corner is misplaced. The recent weakness in merchandise exports, excess capacity utilisation and manufacturing... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
