US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) Another rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 28-month high of 55.7 in August, after the surge to 55.4 in July, suggests that the improvement in overseas activity is benefiting US producers. This... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul. 13) The latest CoreLogic house price reading added to the evidence that the pace of price gains is easing slightly. It’s possible that annual price growth will drop into the single- digit range by the end... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Global developments unlikely to influence Fed tapering Recent global and domestic developments are more likely to lead the Fed to taper QE3 by a relatively small amount at September’s policy meeting rather than prompt it to hold fire until October or... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian firms hampered by lack of competitiveness Those hoping that the expected pick-up in US domestic demand growth will drive an export-led recovery in Canada are likely to be disappointed. Over the past decade, Canadian firms have suffered a... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2013) The moderate slowdown in GDP growth to 1.7% annualised in the second quarter, from 2.2% in the first, is encouraging given the impact of the flooding in Alberta and the construction strike in Quebec. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update QRM proposals are a step towards looser mortgage credit The proposed Qualified Residential Mortgage rule is a welcome simplification and relaxation of earlier proposals which, if enacted, will help to loosen mortgage credit conditions. But the inclusion of... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Higher commodity prices boosts business confidence Another rise in the CFIB's small business confidence in August suggests that firms continue to expect GDP growth to pick up in the third quarter, from our estimated 1.5% annualised in the second.... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank still pinning hopes on an unlikely export-led recovery The Bank of Canada is unlikely to make any major changes in its upcoming policy announcement next Wednesday (4th September), but the recent surge in Canadian long-term interest rates could prompt the... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q2) Average US house prices rose at double-digit levels once again in the second quarter. But adjusting for normal seasonal patterns, all three of the main Case-Shiller indices suggest that the rate of... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's second-quarter GDP slowdown Canada's economy contracted sharply at the end of the second quarter, but only partly because of one-off factors related to severe floods and a brief labour strike. For the second quarter as a whole... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The much bigger than expected 7.3% m/m decline in July's durable goods orders dampens hopes of a pick-up in the growth rate of business investment in the third quarter. 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) July's subdued inflation figures are consistent with an economy growing below potential, which will only reinforce the Bank of Canada's reluctance to raise rates anytime soon. With growth expected to... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Favourable oil prices could spur business investment The rebound in domestic crude oil prices over the first half of this year has improved the outlook for Canadian business investment. Overall, this suggests some upside risk to GDP outlook of 1.5% in... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's 1.2% m/m decline in retail sales volumes, which only partially reversed the 1.9% m/m gain in the month before, confirms that, over the second quarter as a whole, household consumption growth... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed still on course to begin QE taper in September While it's far from a certainty, the minutes from the FOMC meeting in late July appear to support our view that the Fed will begin to slow its monthly asset purchases at the next meeting in mid... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul. 13) The increase in existing home sales in July suggests that the rise in mortgage rates prompted some buyers to rush through with a home sale before rates became higher still. This stimulatory effect... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
