Canada Economics Update Credit Monitor (Jul.) Restrictive mortgage rules and rising fixed mortgage rates suggest that the slowdown in household credit growth is likely to persist. Meanwhile, trends in business sector credit growth suggest that... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Higher mortgage rates denting housing market activity The steady increase in mortgage interest rates is now having a more noticeable effect on housing market activity. Mortgage applications for refinancing have more than halved since rates began rising... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Ahead of the taper The markets are obsessing about whether the Fed will begin to reduce its monthly asset purchases at the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (18th September). All things... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing's support to second-half GDP unlikely to last Housing investment might continue to support GDP growth over the second half of this year, but there are still tentative signs that a day of reckoning lies around the corner, with housing likely to... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Recovery slowing to a more sustainable pace The spike in mortgage interest rates has taken a toll on housing market activity, but we don’t expect it to knock the housing recovery off course. Nevertheless, with the inventory of homes for sale... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar headed even lower before year-end We expect the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar to be followed by another downward leg before year-end. While improving global economic conditions and buoyant commodity prices will help to... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fannie, Freddie and financial repression The proposed winding down of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-owned mortgage finance companies, is normally framed in terms of protecting taxpayers from having to pick up the tab in the... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The surprisingly robust 59,200 rebound in employment in August, following declines over the prior two months, wasn't quite as good as it looks because that gain owed a lot to a surge in part-time jobs... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August's Employment Report is a mixed bag that can be used either to support an immediate tapering of the Fed's monthly asset purchases or to delay that move. Our best guess is that the cumulative... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's second-half showing likely to disappoint Following disruptions to energy output in the second half of last year, Canada's economy rebounded over the first half of this year, posting GDP growth of 2.2% and 1.7% annualised in the first and... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fading fiscal drag to boost GDP growth As the current fiscal tightening fades and the external environment improves, we expect US GDP growth to accelerate from 1.5% this year to 2.5% in 2014 and 3.0%. Despite the recent rise in long-term... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish Although the Bank of Canada retained its tightening bias word for word, it now admits that the continuing weakness in exports and investment mean hopes of a smooth 'rotation in demand' look less... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $39.1bn in July, from $34.5bn in June, is nothing to worry about. For a start, it didn't even fully reverse the unexpected decline in the deficit in June... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) July's discouraging decline in export volumes adds to our concern that Canada is not fully benefitting from the gradually improving US economy. With export competitiveness challenges likely to persist... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug 13.) Higher mortgage interest rates took a further toll on mortgage applications in August. But 30-year rates eased a touch at the end of the month, while applications for home purchase increased. 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) Another rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 28-month high of 55.7 in August, after the surge to 55.4 in July, suggests that the improvement in overseas activity is benefiting US producers. This... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
