Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Calm returns, for now The past month has brought signs of stabilisation across the emerging world. EM financial markets largely shrugged off concerns over a possible US default and regained some of their lost ground... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Debt-ceiling crisis has done lasting damage The lukewarm market reaction to the end of the US government shutdown and the suspension of the debt ceiling can largely be explained by the fact that the chances of default were already assumed to be... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Don't expect a flood of economic reports It will be some weeks yet before all of the economic data releases that were postponed during the government shutdown are published. As the shutdown will have severely delayed the collection process... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Short-term debt ceiling fix still leaves plenty of uncertainty Financial markets have been buoyed by media reports indicating that both the Senate and the House are preparing to vote imminently on a bill to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Economic growth outlook likely to be downgraded We don't expect the Bank of Canada to make any major changes in next week's policy statement (Wednesday, 23rd October). While weak exports and business confidence are likely to have prompted some... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is homebuilder confidence set for a weaker period? Homebuilder confidence may be on the verge of a weaker period. The good news is that previous rapid run-ups and subsequent moderations in homebuilder confidence have dampened, but not derailed... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The small decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August suggests that, after rebounding strongly in July, the economy grew by only 0.1% m/m in August. Nevertheless, given the strong start to the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Loss of AAA ratings embarrassing, but probably little more The chaos in Washington has left the US at greater risk of losing its remaining AAA credit ratings even if an imminent default is avoided. However, while this would be a political embarrassment, the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are foreign investors to a default on Treasuries? Expectations were growing on Tuesday that US lawmakers would soon reach an agreement to extend the debt ceiling before the Treasury runs out of cash. But there is still an outside chance that a deal... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senate edging closer to deal to reopen government The Senate appears to be edging closer to a deal to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling. There is a risk that the Republican-controlled House will initially reject that agreement... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response House Prices & Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The uptick in house price inflation, to 2.7% in September from 2.3% in August, is consistent with the reported decline in the supply of housing inventory. But with home sales being pulled forward in... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Delving into the Treasury’s spending schedule Despite the more promising tone of the recent discussions on Capitol Hill, there remains a risk that the debt ceiling will not be raised before Thursday. But a detailed look at the Treasury’s spending... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What impact would a US default have on Treasuries? In the event of the US government failing to service its debts, there are some good reasons to argue that Treasury yields would jump and others to suggest that they would actually fall. Our view is... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New housing activity spread signalling slowdown ahead The historically high number of housing units under construction justifies the current strength of construction employment. But the negative spread between housing starts and completions signals that... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Crunch time It’s good news that Congress appears to be moving towards a deal to raise the debt ceiling, but the solution currently being discussed is far from perfect. The biggest problem is that the Republican... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses losing confidence in economic outlook The latest Business Outlook Survey dealt another blow to the Bank of Canada's upbeat growth outlook. With businesses turning more cautious on the outlook for sales and capital investment, even our... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
