US Data Response Retail Sales & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The acceleration in retail sales growth in October is one of a few reasons why the Fed is unlikely to be too concerned by the fall in CPI inflation to a four-year low of 1.0%, from 1.2% in September. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The annual growth rate of our M3* measure of broad money remained at just under 6% in October. In contrast, the growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 aggregates continue to trend lower. 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Drop in participation rate more structural than cyclical The push by the Fed to delay tapering its asset purchases and possibly to lower its unemployment rate threshold suggests that officials expect the participation rate to rebound. We're not convinced... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tighter mortgage rules could worsen future housing correction Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's latest threat to intervene in the housing market appears ill-timed. Although the recent pick-up in existing home sales points to some acceleration in house price... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Boost to spending from lower gasoline prices will be small The recent decline in gasoline prices has prompted speculation that it could provide a very timely boost to real income and spending. Gasoline prices normally decline at this time of year, however, so... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) & Empire State Index (Nov.) There is no evidence that the fall in industrial production in October is a temporary effect triggered by the government shutdown that will be reversed in November. But equally, the rise in... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales volumes indicate that monthly GDP grew by a respectable 0.2% m/m. For the third quarter as a whole, this suggests some slight upside... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (Sep.) and Productivity & ULC (Q3) The trade deficit widened to a four-month high of $41.8bn in September, from $38.7bn, suggesting that third-quarter GDP growth will need to be revised down to around 2.5% annualised, from 2.8%. 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's trade figures confirm that, for the third quarter as a whole, exports were a material drag on GDP growth, which we estimate was 2.5% annualised. 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen plays the continuity card At her Senate nomination hearing today, the current Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen carefully defended the Fed's policy and regulatory actions over the past few years, suggesting that her approach will... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack More signs of a slowdown in housing market activity The latest data provide further evidence that housing market activity has come off the boil. Existing home sales declined in September, and the sharp drop in pending home sales points to more falls... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The rising costs of QE The further rise in the long-term costs of QE means that a smaller improvement in the economic data than before may be needed to prompt the Fed to slow the pace of its asset purchases. At the margin... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will rising corporate bond yields put pressure on US equities? The earnings yield of a stock market index should be closely related to the average real yield of long-dated bonds issued by its constituents. In the US, we think the latter is likely to rise... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The further acceleration in annual house price growth to 3.1% in October, from 2.7%, reflects the recent rebound in home sales. Since the latter largely reflects a rush to take advantage of low... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the multi-family sector becoming overbuilt? Multi-family construction activity has bounced back strongly since the crash. But the pipeline of multi-family homes under construction does not look particularly large relative to the stock of... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government turning more cautious on economy After enjoying a stronger than expected 2012-13 fiscal year, the Federal government is taking a cautious approach and sticking with its previous timetable to eliminate the budget deficit by 2015. With... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
