Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to pause before signalling policy easing Following the downgrading of its economic outlook and dropped tightening bias, the recent economic data have been just about strong enough to allow the Bank of Canada to stand pat at next week's... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low quality job creation to restrain income growth It is encouraging that, even allowing for the modest drop back in September, the payroll survey suggests employment growth picked up in the third quarter. Unfortunately, over the past year, payroll... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Good enough to taper? Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payroll employment rose by a solid 180,000 in November, which may be enough to prompt the Fed to taper its asset purchases at the policy meeting in... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What impact would RMB liberalisation have on Treasuries? The People’s Bank of China (PBC) recently asserted that its intervention in the currency market would “basically” end. If this proves to be the case, it would represent a significant change of heart... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The continuing slump in non-defence capital goods (ex. aircraft) orders and shipments suggests that business equipment investment might contract over the entire second half of this year. 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits and investment likely to slow The slowdown in third-quarter business profit growth and the more recent pullback in commodity prices suggest that investment growth will remain lacklustre. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada's hopes of... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) Despite a strengthening labour market, record-high equity prices and lower gasoline prices, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence actually fell to a seven-month low of 70.4 in November... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q3 13) National US house prices posted another solid gain in Q3 and are now rising at double-digit rates year-on-year. But this may well mark the peak of annual house price gains. 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economic growth grinding higher The pick-up in GDP growth to 2.8% annualised in the third quarter, from 2.5% in the second, suggests that as the fiscal drag fades, the recovery is strengthening. On the whole, the latest monthly data... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly OECD's call for higher interest rates misplaced The OECD's suggestion that the Bank of Canada may need to raise interest rates soon is misplaced for two reasons. First, it underestimates the amount of monetary policy stimulus that will be needed to... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed looking to change the mix rather than stance of policy The Fed is clearly looking to offset the market impact from any decision to wind down its asset purchases by strengthening its commitment to leave its policy rate at near-zero for several more years... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) October's muted core inflation reading illustrates the considerable economic slack that remains and supports the Bank of Canada's recent decision to discard its tightening bias. With an acceleration... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is slowing globalisation a threat to the US stock market? Labour’s share of income has plummeted in the United States during the past decade. This has provided an important prop to the stock market because its flipside has been a surge in the share of income... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Foreclosure overhang weighing on New York and New Jersey The rise in the foreclosure inventory in New York and New Jersey in the third quarter provides one more reason to think that housing market prospects in these two States are relatively weak. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed minutes suggest December taper not out of the question The key takeaway from the minutes of the late October FOMC meeting is that, despite the government shutdown, the Fed was still open to tapering its monthly asset purchases at the mid-December meeting. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct. 13) The further decline in existing home sales in October is the result of the earlier hike in mortgage interest rates. The immediate outlook for existing home sales is negative, but the loosening in... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
