Canada Economics Weekly Weaker Canadian dollar no panacea for economic blues The Bank of Canada's increasingly dovish stance explains only a small part of the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. We think it has more to do with the pullback in commodity prices... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker Canadian dollar no panacea for economic blues The Bank of Canada's increasingly dovish stance explains only a small part of the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. We think it has more to do with the pullback in commodity prices... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The sharp rise in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a five-month high of 82.5 in December, from 75.1, presumably reflects the strength of the labour market and the upward... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's stronger than expected 21,600 gain in employment was overshadowed by the decline in hours worked. Accordingly, the incoming data still points to slower fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment (Nov.) & Income/Spending (Oct.) The 203,000 increase in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the drop in the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 7.0%, gives the Fed all the evidence it needs to begin tapering its asset... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Faster economic growth won't be sustained Canada's economic growth rate has rebounded slightly after the disconcerting slowdown in the second half of last year. Growth remains overly dependent on unsustainable household borrowing, however... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada shuffling closer to a rate cut Although the Bank of Canada maintained its neutral stance as expected, its policy statement showed that it does have more concerns about the growth and inflation outlook, just not enough right now to... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep. 13 & Oct. 13) New home sales were still suffering the effects of the rise in mortgage interest rates in September, but fully made up for their earlier weakness in October. In other words, higher rates do not appear... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) October's decline in export volumes illustrates that any export-led recovery is still some way off. This supports our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will slow to a very underwhelming 1.5%... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) & ADP Payrolls (Nov.) The trade deficit narrowed to $40.6bn in October, from $43.0bn, but that decline only partly reversed the widening in September. Looking through the month-to-month volatility, the trade deficit... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov 13.) The slight rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in November was not enough to undo earlier falls. But it was a step in the right direction and we expect mortgage activity to pick up... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct. 13) With the release of the CoreLogic house price index for October it’s clear that the pace of monthly house price gains has accelerated in recent months. But we continue to expect price gains to slow... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The unexpected increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year high of 57.3 in November, from 56.4, suggests that activity is receiving a boost from both stronger domestic and... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Currency depreciation will prevent deflation The recent softening in underlying inflation, which has been partly driven by the widening output gap, has triggered speculation that Canada faces the risk of a deflation developing, particularly if... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Cutting the IOER rate would be too risky Cutting the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate may seem like a simple way for the Fed to signal its intent to leave short rates at near-zero for several more years, at the same time as it begins... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2013) Although the pick-up in third-quarter GDP growth is encouraging, it partly reflects the rebound from flooding in Alberta and the construction strike in Quebec. Unfortunately, the details show a... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
