Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) October's surprisingly strong gain in manufacturing sales volumes was largely due to the strength of the rebound in food sales. The weakness of sales in most other categories and the downward trend in... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The strong increase in November took the level of industrial production back above the pre-recession peak for the first time and provided more evidence that economic growth is gaining momentum. 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) Broad money growth continues to slow very gradually but, with the annual growth rate of our M3 measure still at a healthy 5.8% in November, there is no reason for concern, particularly not when... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Strong pace of sales growth also supports QE taper Last week we learned that business inventories and sales both posted sizeable gains in October, while the retail sales figures showed another decent gain in November. As a result, we now expect fourth... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada still facing multitude of risks The Bank of Canada's latest semi-annual Financial System Review was a stark reminder that a lot could go wrong for Canada over the next year or two. While highlighting the progress in Europe, it now... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The further acceleration in house price inflation to a 13-month high of 3.4% in November, from 3.1%, reflects the pick-up in existing home sales seen earlier this year. Most recently existing home... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack New home sales make up for earlier rate-related losses The sharp 25.4% m/m increase in new home sales in October reversed the decline during the previous three months and left new home sales back at their level before mortgage interest rates rose. That's... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) November’s retail sales figures suggest that the holiday shopping season began on a strong note. Real consumption growth in the fourth quarter is on course to be at least double the third quarter’s 1... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Odds just favour a QE taper this month We suspect that the renewed strength of employment growth in the past few months will be just enough to persuade the Fed to begin tapering its monthly asset purchases at next week's two-day FOMC... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget deal would deliver much-needed fiscal stability The modest bipartisan budget deal announced late yesterday, which would boost Federal spending by roughly $63bn over the next two years while at the same time reducing deficits by a cumulative $23bn... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook 2014 will see a slowdown in the housing recovery The housing market recovery is entering a new phase. The rapid bounce in house prices, which was driven by strong investment buying and tight supply conditions, will soon start to moderate. The... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising wealth will boost consumption growth The recent surge in equity prices and rapid rebound in house prices are boosting household wealth and will contribute to an acceleration in consumption growth over the next two years. 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing will become a drag on economy next year While the recent condo-driven pick-up in housing starts will provide a boost to fourth-quarter residential investment, the slump in new home sales suggests it will be reversed next year, making... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Stronger recovery will allow Fed to wind down QE As the fading fiscal drag more than offsets any impact from a modest further rise in long-term interest rates, we expect economic growth to accelerate from 1.8% this year to 2.5% in 2014 and further... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What would the Fed taper mean for government bonds? Fears that the end of the Fed’s purchases will lead to a further surge in Treasury yields are almost certainly overdone. What’s more, even if long-term interest rates do continue to climb in the US... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economic growth gathering momentum Last week's upward revision to third-quarter GDP growth to 3.6% annualised, from the initial 2.8% estimate, prompted a number of forecasters to lower their forecasts for fourth-quarter GDP growth, in... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
