Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) Despite a big one-time jump in gold exports, the 2.0% m/m increase in export volumes in May, following fairly strong upward revised gains in the previous two months, builds an even stronger case than... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Existing home sales delivered an upside surprise in March, reaching their highest level in almost a decade. Yet that rise needs to be seen in the context of the previous month’s sharp drop and sales... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal budget avoids policy change on uncertain outlook The 2017 Federal budget delivered today, which was largely a wait-and-see budget, is understandable given the highly uncertain outlook on US trade and fiscal policy. Furthermore, the government is... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stand pat until June The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP prospects improve, despite trade policy uncertainty Incoming data indicate that the economy has emerged from the oil price shock, with encouraging signs in business confidence pointing to faster economic growth over the next six months. As things stand... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) January’s strong gain in non-farm payrolls suggests that the labour market started the year on a solid footing. However, the drop back in annual wage growth is another reason to think the Fed will... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump, China and the world in 2017 In this Focus we consider the outlook for the world economy this year and next, in light of two of the biggest concerns which have preoccupied investors in recent months: US economic policy under... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) After jumping following Trump’s win in November, mortgage applications for home purchase held their ground in January. But a lack of housing inventory will act to constrain demand for home purchase... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Base effects hold down wage growth We expect a slightly stronger 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January. Base effects mean that the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings probably edged down to 2.8%, from 2.9%, but... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cut in FHA mortgage insurance costs will support house prices The 25bps cut to the annual insurance premiums for mortgages backed by the FHA will offset some of the recent rise in mortgage rates. But with inventory levels very low, the primary impact of any... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House price growth on the rise Housing demand was given a short-term boost following Trump’s win, as some buyers brought forward a planned purchase in order to secure a low mortgage rate before they increased further. But with the... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico & US: the ties that bind This note is intended to help clients identify areas where the imposition of protectionist measures by President Trump might hit Mexico hardest. On the trade front, Mexico is especially reliant on... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will have to step up the pace of tightening next year The lack of a sustained acceleration in wage growth suggests the Fed will be in no rush to hike rates again early next year. The stagnation in productivity, however, means that even the current level... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market can withstand higher interest rates Trump’s win will have two offsetting impacts on the housing market. Mortgage rates have already spiked since the election and will rise further. All else equal that will depress housing demand. Yet a... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada downplaying housing risks While it continues to warn about growing housing imbalances and risky mortgage lending, the Bank of Canada still believes there is only a low probability of a major housing correction happening... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
