US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership and Vacancy Rates (Q4) The homeownership rate fell again at the end of last year, but the decade-long decline in the share of the population who own their home may now be drawing to an end. In the meantime, however, supply... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s really happening to US inflation expectations? To what extent have recent declines in US bond market-based measures of inflation expectations been driven by changes in expectations for inflation? This is neither a conundrum nor as stupid a... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Next refinancing boom won’t be as big as the last The recent decline in mortgage interest rates will trigger a refinancing boom that will span the first half of 2015. But it will be more modest than the one in 2012, and the benefits in terms of lower... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview A strong employment gain should trigger wages rebound Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by as much as 250,000 in January, which would broadly match the increase in December. As a result, we expect the unemployment rate to... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data show a further surge in US crude oil stocks as traders continue to store oil to take advantage of high futures prices. 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Are lower crude oil prices here to stay? The slump in oil prices over the last six months has vindicated the bearish view we have held for several years. Our central forecast is that the price of Brent will recover to $60 per barrel by the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Wage puzzle not explained by mix of jobs created The lack of any meaningful pick-up in the growth rate of average hourly earnings over the past 12 months, even as the unemployment rate has fallen below 6%, is not because of the poor quality of the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to tumble further Softening economic conditions and speculation about another interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada will keep downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. Allowing for a modest bounce back in the price... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The surge in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a seven-year high in January suggests that consumers started the year in a buoyant mood and that the decline in retail sales in... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Nov./Dec.) The strong rise in new home sales in December, which followed an encouraging gain in existing home sales in the same month, means that housing market supply conditions are tightening. That’s putting... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weakness in non-defence capital goods shipments in December means that the balance of risks to our estimate that fourth-quarter GDP increased by 3.0% annualised now lie a little to the downside... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in US oil stocks supports spot prices The surge in US stocks of oil in the last few weeks has been driven at least in part by attempts to arbitrage low spot prices with higher futures ones. This should support prices over the next few... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget deficit projections dependent on rate outlook Although the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) latest projections show the Federal budget deficit at only 2.6% of GDP in fiscal year 2015, it does still expect the deficit to widen again before the... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Further rate cuts possible, but won't help economy much The Bank of Canada's surprise quarter point rate cut to 0.75% last week, which came in response to the collapse in world oil prices, will only have a small positive impact on the economy. Unless oil... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) December's increase in core inflation, to 2.2% from 2.1%, reflects sector-specific factors and pass-through effects of a lower Canadian dollar already judged by the Bank of Canada as temporary. The... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices finding a floor as precious metals rebound The European Central Bank’s decision to launch a large-scale programme of government bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE) is unlikely to provide a major boost to the prices of global... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
