Canada Economics Update Trump victory creates more business uncertainty The reaction in financial markets to Donald Trump’s surprising US election victory has been limited so far, thanks in large part to the surprisingly conciliatory tone of his acceptance speech this... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico keeps its powder dry, but rate hikes still likely The rebound in the peso over the last few hours appears to have dissuaded Mexico’s central bank from raising interest rates at a press conference this morning. However, with the situation in markets... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What might the Trump victory mean for the housing market? Trump’s victory has been accompanied by a rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets now expect looser fiscal policy. All else equal, that will push up mortgage rates. To date, Trump has said little... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump victory to bring lasting uncertainty and volatility Donald Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech, which suggests that he can be a more statesmanlike President rather than the demagogue of the election campaign, has helped to reverse some of the... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Opportunities for China from Trump’s election Despite the threat of being hit with high tariffs and being labelled a currency manipulator, China will see benefits in the election of Donald Trump. In the near term, the dollar’s weakness against... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Signs of “reflation” in the US, but not elsewhere The jump in US average earnings growth, reported earlier today, is the latest indication that inflation there is on the rise. But aside from stronger oil prices, there is little sign of a broader pick... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty will persist well past election day This week’s presidential election is now too close to call. Even in the aftermath of the FBI Director’s letter to Congress a week last Friday, Hillary Clinton still appears to hold a slim lead in the... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go? The likely market sell-off in response to a victory for Donald Trump next week could push the Mexican peso to as low as 25/$. What happens to the peso beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for December rate hike As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting, but it appears to be intent on hiking interest rates at the upcoming December meeting. Nevertheless, next week’s... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would a Trump win really be bad for the S&P 500? The consensus is that a victory for Donald Trump in next Tuesday’s presidential election would deal a lasting blow to the US stock market. Our sense, though, is that the performance of the S&P 500... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal fiscal update doesn't alter dismal growth outlook Finance Minister Bill Morneau focused entirely on longer-term infrastructure spending in today’s fiscal update, offering no new short-term stimulus measures to bolster the struggling economy. If, as... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The 0.2% m/m gain in August GDP, partly driven by the further recovery in oil extraction, all but confirms that the economy grew by close to 3.5% annualised in the third quarter following the wildfire... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) After seasonal adjustment, house prices on the Core-Logic measure jumped by 1.4% m/m in September. That reading will almost certainly be revised down next month, but even so it is clear that house... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to delay rate hike until December The markets are convinced that the Fed will stand pat at this week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, and will instead raise interest rates at the final policy meeting of the year in mid... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Should the Bank of Canada be more transparent? The mixed messages coming from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz last week, which caused a stir in financial markets and the media, makes us wonder if, like most other major central banks, the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The bigger than expected 2.9% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP confirms that the economic recovery has regained some of the momentum lost within the last year. As such, this leaves the Fed firmly... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
