US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 295,000 increase in payroll employment in February (consensus forecast 235,000) and the further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5% illustrate that, even if wage growth is still subdued, the Fed... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks increase by the largest amount in over a decade, but fears about storage capacity constraints seem overdone. 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What impact would an Iran-US nuclear deal have on oil prices? A deal between Iran and the West which allows for the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports is looking more likely. However, as always, the devil is in the detail. The most likely scenario in... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) The rise in mortgage rates put a dampener on mortgage applications in February. However, with affordability set to remain favourable and the wider economy growing strongly, mortgage volumes and home... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2014) The 2.4% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP looks encouraging enough, but this is merely the calm before the storm. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) A surge in house price inflation in January could be the start of a temporary period of faster price growth, caused by tighter supply conditions and the strength of the wider economy. But with housing... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manuf. Index (Feb.), Income & Spending (Jan.) The economic data released today suggest that first-quarter GDP growth should be between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised , which is a little lower than we previously envisaged. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Outlook for metals brightening Metals prices have shown some of the largest gains in the past week, benefitting from some better news on the global economy including stronger manufacturing PMI surveys in China and the euro-zone... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada will still cut rates further Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signalled last week that he thought the January interest rate cut was enough insurance against downside risks for the time being. That confirmed our existing view... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed positions itself for a June rate hike In her congressional testimony last week, Chair Janet Yellen appeared to lay the groundwork for the Fed to begin raising rates in June. Yes, the exact timing is still data dependent. But assuming we... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Brief deflation won't hold up the Fed Although the CPI inflation rate dipped into negative territory in January, this bout of deflation is likely to be brief and it won't prevent the Fed from beginning to raise its policy rate from near... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4) At 5.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, the mortgage delinquency rate has fallen close to the long run average of 5.0%-5.5%. Admittedly, the foreclosure start rate and foreclosure inventory rate... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Weather and port dispute are downside risks Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by a slightly more modest 230,000 in February, down from an average monthly gain of 336,000 over the preceding three months. It is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The decline in the headline CPI inflation rate to only 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, was entirely due gasoline prices, which fell by 26.9% over the past year. Excluding food, energy and other volatile... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Durable Goods Orders (Jan.) The 0.7% m/m decline in consumer prices in January was entirely due to a massive 18.7% m/m fall in gasoline prices. As a result, the annual rate of inflation fell to -0.1%, which is technically a... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The latest data show that US oil stocks are climbing at an increasing rate as maintenance work at refineries means that even more oil is funnelled into storage. 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
