Canada Economics Weekly Household indebtedness highest among G7 The strong GDP performance over the first half of the year means that Canada will probably finish at the top of the G7 growth ladder this year. More worryingly, however, it also takes first place when... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) Although the headline inflation rate rose to a moderate 1.4% in August, from 1.2%, the further increases in core inflation are broadly consistent with the reduced slack in the economy. This suggests... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jul.) Manufacturing sales volumes fell by a larger 1.4% m/m in July, the second consecutive monthly decline, confirming that the industrial sector began the third quarter on a soft footing. That said, much... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly At least income inequality isn’t getting worse The latest Census data show that average growth in the median total income of households was disappointing over 2005 to 2015 which might, we suspect, prompt renewed speculation of worsening income... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to tumble next year The Bank of Canada’s unexpectedly aggressive monetary tightening this year, which stands in stark contrast to the Fed’s over-cautious approach, largely explains the surge in the Canadian dollar this... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets bracing for another interest rate hike The Bank of Canada’s bold call to raise interest rates again so soon after its well-telegraphed July hike caught some investors completely by surprise, resulting in a sharp increase in rate... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The stronger 22,200 gain in employment in August is an encouraging sign for continued income and consumption growth in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the further drop in the unemployment rate to 6.2%... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada taking a big gamble on rate hikes The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates for a second consecutive time is a clear sign that policymakers are supremely confident in the economy. Considering the strong pace of recent GDP... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) Despite the recent improvement in global trade activity, merchandise export volumes fell for the second consecutive month in July, hinting at a slower pace of overall economic growth in the third... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth bound to slow after blazing pace in H1 Although the real economy grew strongly over the first half of this year, that growth still appears to be overly dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That arrangement was possible when... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2017) Despite a drop in housing investment, the economic growth accelerated to 4.5% q/q annualised in the second quarter, led by exports and household consumption. This showing was much stronger than the 3... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Don’t rule out an interest rate hike next week The incoming economic data have been generally strong and will encourage the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates further to 1.00%, from 0.75%, before the end of this year. We wouldn’t rule out a... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households still living the high life Household consumption grew very strongly in the second quarter, supported by a further decline in the household saving rate and an acceleration in household borrowing. In the tougher banking... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada will be up against it in NAFTA talks Canada’s trade demands heading into the historic NAFTA renegotiations this week didn’t appear to be overly ambitious, in contrast to the much more aggressive approach adopted by the US. Nevertheless... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The increases in headline and core inflation in July are consistent with the recent improvement in economic growth and raise the probability of a second rate hike by the Bank of Canada before December... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) The 1.0% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in June was broadly consistent with the drop in non-commodity exports already reported for that month. For the second quarter as a whole... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
