US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) New home sales sustained almost all of December’s seven-year high in January, falling by a marginal 0.2% m/m. The strong labour market and loosening mortgage credit conditions mean that the outlook... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will US energy exports be a game-changer for global markets? A fast-changing regulatory background is becoming increasingly important to global energy markets. In this Energy Watch, we examine how the recent fall in oil prices has affected the outlook for US... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the US stock market? The US stock market has weathered the approach of monetary tightening well and we expect it to continue to do so once the FOMC begins to raise the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, we would be... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Despite falling in February, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence continues to show that consumers have started 2015 in an optimistic mood. Confidence is still at a level consistent... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen positions the Fed for a June rate hike Chair Janet Yellen's prepared congressional testimony, which struck a more upbeat tone on labour market conditions and included a detailed discussion of how the forward guidance will be amended... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Dec.) December marked the fourth consecutive month during which house prices rose by at least 0.5% m/m. The slight acceleration in price growth at the end of last year reflects the tightening in housing... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) The drop in home sales at the start of 2015 is not a sign that the (admittedly lacklustre) housing recovery is coming off the rails. Strong employment growth and signs that wage growth will soon... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids deflation... at least for now This week we expect to learn on Thursday that headline CPI inflation fell to 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, principally because of the slump in energy prices last month. With crude oil and retail... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA Weekly Export Sales (12th Feb.) Today’s US weekly export sales data show a further slump in demand for US wheat. And while exports of soybeans also fell sharply, this is likely, at least in part, to be due to seasonal factors... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will sterling’s renewed strength be maintained? Sterling is one of the only major currencies to have appreciated against the US dollar over the past month. However, we doubt its renewed strength will last. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec 14) The 2.0% m/m fall in the value of retail sales in December suggests that Canadian consumers have taken flight, perhaps fearful for their jobs in the wake of the fallout from the energy price collapse... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan 15) The strong pace of growth in both broad money and bank loans is another reason to believe that the temporary bout of negative inflation, which almost certainly began last month, will not develop into... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dip into deflation will be brief This week we expect to learn that, principally because of the recent collapse in energy prices, US headline inflation plummeted into negative territory in January. Once the temporary effects from... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Sterling’s strength unlikely to last Sterling has been one of the few major currencies to appreciate against the US dollar over the past month. As a result the real effective exchange rate is now around 5% above its ten-year average and... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There is no sign of a drop off in US oil production in the latest data, nor any pick-up in demand, as US oil stocks surge again. 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jan.) The modest 0.2% m/m increase in industrial production in January reflects the early impact of the collapse in energy prices on the mining sector. Otherwise, manufacturing output increased by a... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
