US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) November’s 6% drop in existing home sales always looked suspicious, given the strength of recent macro-economic data and the drop in borrowing costs. So confirmation that sales ended the year on a... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand to push the price of cocoa lower Falling cocoa grindings in Europe, North America and Asia suggest that the world has lost some of its sweet tooth. We expect weaker demand and ample supply to push the price of cocoa lower. 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's patient approach at odds with incoming data While the strength of real economic growth and employment suggest that the Fed should begin to raise interest rates very soon, the mixed news on wages, the lack of any pick-up in core inflation and... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide further evidence that traders are stockpiling US crude to take advantage of the difference between low spot prices and higher future ones. 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Consumer confidence soaring While financial markets are concerned that the slump in energy prices and the drop back in long-term interest rates partly reflect the weakness of economic growth in Europe and Asia, consumers have no... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada shocks markets with rate cut The Bank of Canada shocked markets this morning by lowering its policy interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%, in response to the collapse in oil prices that now threatens the outlook for economic growth... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Low oil prices will hit business profits hard Since oil now accounts for half of Canada's production-weighted commodity price index, the collapse in crude oil prices represents a big downside risk to the outlook for business operating profits... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has foreign demand contributed to the rally in US Treasuries? One development that may have contributed to the rally in US Treasuries, and which seems likely to persist, is demand from overseas in response to rock-bottom bond yields elsewhere in the developed... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) The rise in housing starts in December, as well as the upward revisions to the previous two months’ data, suggests that homebuilding was gathering momentum in the closing stages of 2014. The latest... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Patient Fed now unlikely to raise rates until mid-year While the strength of real economic growth and employment suggest that the Fed should begin to raise rates very soon, the mixed news on wages, the lack of any pick-up in core inflation and recent... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) The larger than expected decline in November's manufacturing sales suggests that the economy lost some momentum in the final quarter of last year. We estimate the economy grew by close to 2.5%... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What next for mortgage interest rates? The decline in long-term Treasury yields almost certainly means that 30-year mortgage interest rates have further to fall and that any subsequent rises will be more gradual than we previously... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary indicators Monitor (Dec. 14) The growth rates of the various measures of broad money have remained robust even after the Fed halted its large-scale asset purchases late last year. For 2014 as a whole, M3*, our estimate of the... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Drop in gasoline prices will help drive vehicle sales The drop in gasoline prices is adding to the already-favourable outlook for vehicle sales, which we expect to hit all-time highs soon. 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the Fed driven down the term premium on US Treasuries? We think the Fed has been instrumental in the collapse of term premiums on long-dated Treasuries and that the effect of its actions will not be unwound soon. If we are right, and other depressing... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
