Canada Economics Weekly Household debt will remain a risk for years to come The news earlier this week that household debt had edged down to 168.0% of disposable incomes in the first quarter, from 169.7% in the final quarter of last year, was greeted by some as confirmation... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The unexpected 1.9% m/m slump in manufacturing sales volumes in April is a blow to the Bank of Canada, since it suggests that economic growth has not picked up much after the disappointingly weak... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Household credit growth slows sharply Rising interest rates and the recent tightening of mortgage lending standards are now having a marked impact on mortgage lending, with the three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate of mortgage... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly US keeps the heat on in NAFTA negotiations The NAFTA negotiations appeared to be winding down quietly since there was no longer enough time left for the US Congress to pass legislation before the end of this year. But President Donald Trump... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on the side lines Although first-quarter GDP growth appears to have been stronger than the Bank of Canada assumed back in April, we don’t expect it to signal another rate hike is imminent at next week’s policy meeting... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How big is the threat of zombie malls in Europe? Dire predictions for US shopping centre closures appear relatively well-founded. However, for a variety of reasons – including more defensive lease terms, lower stock per capita and tighter planning... 3rd May 2018 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market remains muted Earlier this week we learned that, according to Teranet, national house price inflation slowed to a two-year low of 6.6% in March, from 7.5% in February and a recent peak of 14.2% in mid-2017. Based... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Housing woes to keep Bank on the side lines The Bank of Canada is unlikely to hike interest rates again at its Governing Council meeting next Wednesday. Even with the risk of NAFTA’s demise fading and core inflation picking up, there is now a... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in March, together with the weaker incoming activity data, will add to worries that the economy is slowing. But the index is still at a level... 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household deleveraging likely to restrain growth The small income-driven decline in the household debt-to-income ratio in the fourth quarter of 2017 provides a glimmer of hope that the economy might be able to successfully grow its way out of debt... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining tax competitiveness hurting investment The 2018 Federal budget delivered earlier this week, which kept corporate income tax rates unchanged, failed to address the unease among executives about business taxation, in light of the large tax... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2017) The weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth of 1.7% q/q annualised, following a downward-revised 1.5% pace in the previous quarter, was driven by household consumption and housing which, with... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Direct impact of US steel tariffs is small The imposition of US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have little direct impact on Asian economies. The bigger risk is that they represent the latest steps towards a damaging trade war. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie a key beneficiary of US dollar’s malaise The Canadian dollar hit 81 cents against the US dollar earlier this week but, rather than blaming the loonie’s rally on the Bank of Canada and its recent interest rate hike, the rebound appears to be... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The gradual strengthening in core inflation evident in December’s consumer price figures would seem to justify the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to raise interest rates again. 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Foreigners aren't to blame for high house prices New housing data showing that non-residents account for only a small fraction of the housing stock and claims that these foreigners aren’t to blame for high housing prices have been meet with ridicule... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
