US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) New home sales ended 2019 on a weak note, declining in each of the final three months of the year. But a high traffic of prospective buyers in January points to a swift recovery in sales the early... 27th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / Existing Home Sales (Nov./Dec.) The inventory of existing homes dropped to another record low in December, which means the solid rise in sales seen over the month is unlikely to be the start of an upward trend. Even with market... 22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key calls for 2020 A lack of homes for sale means forecasters agree that existing home sales will just tread water over 2020. But we are more optimistic than others on the outlook for new home sales and single-family... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to accelerate in 2020 The Fed’s interest rate cuts, a truce in the trade war, and a more positive global backdrop have all set the stage for an acceleration in economic growth this year. We calculate that GDP growth was a... 21st January 2020 · 9 mins read
Temporary nature of slowdown to keep Bank on hold Next week the Bank of Canada is likely to once again trim its forecast for GDP growth. But as temporary factors are partly to blame and there have been several positive external developments in recent... 15th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Business Outlook Survey (Q4) The sharp rise in the Future Sales Indicator of the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) is surely the final nail in the coffin for the idea that the Bank of Canada might soon cut interest rates. The survey... 13th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank to keep policy unchanged in 2020 The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep policy unchanged was little surprise and, with house price inflation accelerating, it is unlikely the Bank will follow through on its previous hint of an... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Headwinds for NYC home buyers, but not for rents Over the past couple of years buyers of high-end homes in New York City have been hit by higher taxes, and can no longer hide their identity. That has cut home buyer demand and house prices, and may... 16th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (June) The 2,200 decline in employment in June is not a concern given that the economy created an average of 50,000 jobs per month over the first five months of this year. That torrid pace was never... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to keep supporting equities this year We do not think that the valuations of equities are unsustainably high. Nonetheless, we still expect that stock markets in the US and in the rest of the developed world will slump later this year... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Monetary policy likely to keep “core” bond yields low We are more dovish than investors about the outlook for monetary policy in most developed markets. If we are right, “core” government bond yields are likely to fall, or remain very low, this year. 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) Global aluminium output surged by 4.0% y/y in August, the fastest rate in over a year, owing to restarts in the US and higher production in China and India. This fits with our expectation that the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The resilience of the US stock market is unlikely to last Large-cap equities have generally continued to make headway in the US since the end of July, despite the fact that they have fallen in much of the rest of the developed world. Historically, equities... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t appear unsustainably high There is a widely-held view that the prices of many financial assets are bound to come crashing down sooner or later, because their valuations have risen far above the long-run averages to which they... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
