US Economics Weekly Weak first quarter won't stop the Fed hiking rates this year The Fed is still likely to raise its policy rate later this year. A September lift-off is the marginal favourite, but June and July are possibilities, if it becomes clear quickly that the first... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 4.0% m/m rise in durable goods orders in March was entirely due to a sharp rise in transportation orders. The fall in core orders suggests that the outlook for business investment in equipment... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices should pick up Having fallen sharply since late-2014, we expect US steel prices to stabilise and pick up over the course of this year owing to resilient domestic demand. That said, our forecast also assumes that the... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar.) The fall in new home sales in March is more likely to be a temporary payback after strong growth in previous months rather than a sign that housing activity is starting to cool again. In any case... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide more evidence that US oil production is beginning to decline in response to lower prices rather than weather-related blips. 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) The leap in existing home sales to an 18-month high in March shows that sales are finally gathering momentum after a slow start to 2015. Looser credit conditions and strong growth in jobs and incomes... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed waiting for data to break one way or the other With no scheduled press conference or forecast update at next week's FOMC meeting, expectations about the timing of the Fed's first rate hike will hinge on any changes to the accompanying statement... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack January rate cut won't be enough insurance The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Continued fiscal restraint will slow economy down Although the Conservative-led government fulfilled its pledge to eliminate the Federal budget deficit, fiscal restraint at this juncture seems unnecessary considering the negative fallout from the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) With broad money growth expanding at close to 6% over the past year and bank loans growing at an even faster 8%, there is little evidence of a sustained slowdown in real economic growth or price... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Has the mortgage market turned a corner? The weight of evidence suggests that the mortgage market is making a bigger contribution to the housing recovery than some of the most widely watched indicators imply. Combined with the prospect of... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada doubles down on growth outlook The Bank of Canada's policy statement last week showed that it isn't willing to fold on its optimistic growth predictions, despite being dealt a bad card in the first quarter. Instead, it decided to... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.) The rise in the official core inflation rate to 2.4%, from 2.1%, was a surprise, but the details showed that this was largely due to pass-through effects from the lower Canadian dollar, rather than... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery in retail sales has a lot further to run The weakness of real consumption growth in the first quarter is puzzling since the slump in energy prices effectively gave a large tax cut to households. In that respect, it appears to have parallels... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rebound in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April which, aside from this January's reading, left it at its highest level since 2007 and well above the long-term average... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Although headline consumer prices increased by a slightly smaller than expected 0.2% m/m in March (the consensus forecast was 0.3% m/m), there are now clear signs of a firming in underlying inflation... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
