US Economics Update Assessing the risks to our fed funds forecast In contrast to market expectations, we are still sceptical that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, but we agree with Treasury investors that rates are more likely to fall than rise over the... 19th February 2020 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) The fifth warmest January on record meant housing starts only reversed some of their December surge, with single-family starts remaining above 1 million annualised. That impact will unwind over the... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Near-term shocks won’t knock economy off course Although the Boeing shutdown and the coronavirus outbreak pose downside risks to the economy in the first quarter, there are mounting signs that underlying momentum in the economy is strengthening. We... 19th February 2020 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What’s debt got to do with it? The worst commercial real estate busts have tended to follow a ramping-up in lending activity, driven by the availability of debt rising and its cost falling. However, regularly updated Fed lending... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Could the coronavirus derail the housing market? The coronavirus is contained in the US, and with Chinese construction imports and non-resident buyers too small to have a meaningful impact, the housing market has so far escaped the virus largely... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rental vacancy rates set for a small rise in 2020 A decline in apartment completions helped keep rental vacancy rates low over the latter part of 2019. But strong multifamily starts over the past couple of years suggest completions will pick-up in... 11th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The further rise in employment, the decline in the unemployment rate, and the sharp rebound in wage growth in January all reinforce our view that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut interest rates... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 225,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January suggests that employment benefitted from the unseasonably mild weather (it was the fifth warmest January on record), with the construction sector... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Commercial property to outperform bonds and equities Over the next two years we expect US property to produce total returns of over 7.5% p.a. This would be stronger than any of the last three years and, more importantly, would be a better outturn than... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) A rush to safe-haven assets helped drive the 30-year mortgage rate to a three-year low by the end of January. That triggered a surge in mortgage applications for refinance, and a decent rise in home... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Encouraging rise in vacant homes being repaired A rise in the number of vacant homes being repaired is an indication that some owners of empty properties are planning to put them up for sale. That may provide some relief to a tight housing market... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update All-property total returns set to improve in 2020 Having softened in each of the last four years, we expect US commercial property total returns to strengthen again in 2020, reaching close to 7%. Those returns will reflect a roughly 3% uplift in... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stretched valuations to keep lid on house price growth While not at dangerous levels, the house price-to-earnings ratio does suggest home valuations are stretched. With mortgage interest rates unlikely to fall much further, and limited prospect for a... 31st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Coronavirus unlikely to tip the scales for a rate cut After the SARS outbreak, the Bank of Canada shifted from raising to cutting rates in just three months. Other factors were also at play, however, and the Wuhan virus is less likely to tip the scales... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov.) Low mortgage interest rates and tight supply helped annual house price growth on the Case-Shiller measure increase for the second month in a row in November. But stretched valuations, and tightening... 28th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Six key calls for US commercial property We are launching our new subscription service on US commercial real estate by outlining six key calls that we believe will shape the sector’s story in the coming years. The macroeconomic environment... 28th January 2020 · 18 mins read
