US Housing Market Outlook Housing will continue to normalise A gradual rise in borrowing costs as the Fed raises interest rates from historic lows won’t derail the housing recovery. We expect favourable affordability, looser credit conditions and the strength... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise (and fall) of the machines The recent weakness in durable goods orders and shipments is not due to a mining-related slump triggered by the collapse in oil prices. Instead, it is principally due to a drop back in industrial... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no hurry to cut rates The speech earlier today by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and his remarks during the press release shortly afterwards suggest that the Bank isn't in any hurry to cut rates further. Accordingly... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Decline in mining employment will be relatively modest Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by 240,000 in March. We anticipate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Oil and gasoline stocks continued to diverge last week as drivers took further advantage of low fuel prices. 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in productivity growth could be pivotal Fed officials haven't had a lot to say about the slump in productivity growth but, just as the upsurge in productivity growth in the 1990s was crucial in allowing the Fed to leave rates lower for... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) Equipment investment probably contracted in the first quarter, but the improving survey evidence points to a rebound in the second quarter. The consensus forecast that durable goods orders increased... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The further acceleration in broad money growth in February is indicative of a strengthening real economic recovery that will eventually put more upward pressure on underlying inflation. The annual... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the euro-zone converge with the US? While lower inflation and the drop in the euro might boost growth in the euro-zone relative to that in the US, structural constraints, respective policy conditions and the effects of the Greek crisis... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) Together with the rise in existing home sales reported yesterday, the surge in new home sales, to a seven-year high in February, appears to confirm that the weakness in housing activity at the start... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The 0.2% m/m increase in February's consumer prices was enough to pull the US out of deflation after only one month, with the annual inflation rate rebounding from -0.1% to 0.0%. But there is a good... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The modest rise in existing home sales in February suggests that the market is now recovering after a weak start to the year. Looser credit conditions and the strength of the wider economy should... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy likely to struggle for longer than others expect After slowing in the final quarter of last year, the economy appears to have lost considerably more momentum this quarter, with GDP growth likely to be no better than 1.0% annualised, below the... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Are lower oil prices a net negative for the US after all? Our initial view that lower oil prices would be a net positive for the real economy is not borne out in the first quarter data. The negative impact on mining investment almost outweighed the positive... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) While February's headline inflation rate remained at 1.0%, the core inflation rate eased to 2.1%, from 2.2%. These figures by themselves won't sway the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dovish Fed cheers commodity markets Hints that the Fed will keep US interest rates low by past standards even when it does start to return them towards more normal levels took the steam out of the rally in the dollar and supported... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
