US Economics Update Biden the front runner again Joe Biden’s comeback to win most of the Super Tuesday states means he is now the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, and his campaign could gather further momentum in the coming days if Mike... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed to follow up emergency cut with more action In a dramatic turnaround from last week, when even the most dovish of Fed officials didn’t appear to support any additional policy loosening, the Fed announced an emergency inter-meeting 50bp rate cut... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The modest fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.1 in February, from 50.9, leaves the index still above the levels seen over the second half of last year. Nevertheless, the survey clearly doesn’t... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Grim week raises pressure on the Fed The threat of a coronavirus outbreak in the US is a significant downside risk to the economic outlook. The Fed can do nothing to halt the spread of the virus, but a further tightening of financial... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Dovish policy statement coming The potential for the coronavirus to develop into a pandemic is clearly the biggest risk to our view that the Bank of Canada will keep policy on hold this year. We expect the Bank to remain on the... 26th February 2020 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) Warm weather and a healthy inventory helped new homes make a strong start to the year. A drop in home purchase mortgage applications during February means some of that surge will be reversed over the... 26th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial returns have peaked, but will stay strong We think that 2020 will be the eleventh consecutive year of double-digit total returns for industrial property. However, we also think it will be the last in this cycle, as slower yield falls from... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage rates unlikely to hit record lows A flight to safety and belief that the Fed will cut rates have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows. But we doubt the 30-year mortgage rate will follow suit. Stretched lender capacity and... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Virus fears pull down interest rate expectations While the further spread of the Covid-19 virus increases the chance of interest rate cuts, the Bank of Canada seems likely to approach the issue in the same way that it approached the US-China trade... 25th February 2020 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Dec.) Low mortgage rates and tight inventory have supported house prices in recent months, with Case-Shiller reporting a jump in annual growth to 3.8% in December, a 10-month high. But looking ahead... 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental growth coming off the boil in all sectors Economic indicators have improved recently, but remain at low levels, meaning that the recovery in GDP growth is likely to be gradual. As a result, occupier demand is likely to continue to slow... 21st February 2020 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) Given the plunge in the pending home sales index in December, the 1.3% m/m drop in existing home sales in January was smaller than we had expected. But that implies sales will see a more substantial... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment rent growth to benefit from home shortage Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Rail blockades to weigh on first-quarter growth Due to the ongoing protests that have crippled the rail network, we are reducing our forecast for first-quarter GDP growth to 1.5% annualised, from 1.8%. But providing the blockades end soon, growth... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Apartment rent growth to benefit from home shortage Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Assessing the risks to our fed funds forecast In contrast to market expectations, we are still sceptical that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, but we agree with Treasury investors that rates are more likely to fall than rise over the... 19th February 2020 · 6 mins read
