US Data Response Unexpected weakness a temporary blip The well below consensus 126,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March, particularly when combined with the 69,000 downward revision to earlier gains, will raise fears that the labour market is... 4th April 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US corporate bonds should weather Fed tightening Although Fed tightening could dull investors’ appetite for risk, its onset has not tended to push up the spreads of US corporate bonds over Treasuries much in the past. We expect a similar outcome... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) The decline in Canada's trade deficit to C$1.0bn in February, from an upwardly revised C$1.5bn, reflected an improvement in the terms of trade. Export and import volumes both fell, supporting our view... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Construction weakness due to seasonal adjustment failure At first glance, the recent monthly construction spending figures look awful. The three-month-on-three-month growth rate of residential construction spending at least climbed back into positive... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The sharp declines in both imports and exports in February suggest that the West Coast port dispute had a bigger impact than we had anticipated. Exports fell by 1.6% m/m in February, while imports... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A fall in US output and higher demand from refineries helped to reduce the amount of oil flowing into storage last week. But stocks are still rising. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The modest decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 22-month low of 51.5 in March, from 52.9, illustrates that the stronger dollar and soft overseas demand are still an obstacle for export... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Weak data for March show that the mortgage market continues to stagnate. However, although refinancing activity will fade as interest rates rise, the conditions are in place for stronger home purchase... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) Although the 0.1% m/m decline in January's GDP was more mild than most expected, the first signs of a slump in oil and gas drilling points to more weakness ahead. As things stand now, we estimate the... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 101.3 in March, from 98.8, should reassure those worried that households haven't yet spent their savings stemming from the slump... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen, Bernanke and the equilibrium real rate In an attempt to justify leaving the fed funds rate at near-zero until some time later this year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week hinted that she thought the current equilibrium (or neutral) real... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Impact of oil price shock bigger than most think The collapse in domestic drilling activity, triggered by the slump in oil prices, which has been compounded by another year of unseasonably bad winter weather, has been severe enough to indicate that... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing will continue to normalise A gradual rise in borrowing costs as the Fed raises interest rates from historic lows won’t derail the housing recovery. We expect favourable affordability, looser credit conditions and the strength... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise (and fall) of the machines The recent weakness in durable goods orders and shipments is not due to a mining-related slump triggered by the collapse in oil prices. Instead, it is principally due to a drop back in industrial... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no hurry to cut rates The speech earlier today by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and his remarks during the press release shortly afterwards suggest that the Bank isn't in any hurry to cut rates further. Accordingly... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Decline in mining employment will be relatively modest Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by 240,000 in March. We anticipate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
