Bank of Japan Watch October rate hike looking increasingly likely The trade deal agreed upon between the US and Japan has removed a key downside risk and the Bank of Japan will probably present a more upbeat assessment of the economic outlook at next week's meeting... 24th July 2025 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is the US–Asia trade map being redrawn? 29th July 2025, 9:00AM BST President Trump’s flurry of new trade deals with Asian economies is starting to reshape the region’s trade architecture.
China Economics Update China won’t loosen its grip on critical mineral exports While China’s June trade data showed a pick-up in exports of rare earth elements (REEs), shipments remain well below pre-Liberation Day levels. A further warming of relations with the US could lead to... 23rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (July 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy has largely shrugged off global trade tensions and the trade deal reached between... 23rd July 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily First thoughts on the market implications of Japan’s “deal” We think Japan’s equities will do well over the rest of this year, even accounting for their big rally today, and that the yen will recover in time. But, the trade announcement looks like worse news... 23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Trade deal points to resumption of BoJ tightening cycle this year The trade deal with the US announced today removes a key downside risk to Japan’s economy. And while the potential resignation of PM Ishiba creates political risks, our conviction that the Bank of... 23rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs increasingly absorbing China’s surpluses US tariffs appear to have given renewed impetus to Chinese producers’ efforts to export to emerging markets, resulting in a widening trade surplus with the EM world in the first half of the year. But... 22nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: How fast, how low? How Q2 CPI data could dictate RBA rate cuts 30th July 2025, 3:30AM BST The Reserve Bank of Australia has consistently advocated a cautious approach to policy easing.
Asia Rapid Response Thailand: new central bank appointment may raise concerns about central bank independence 22nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (July 2025) Although the RBA judged that leaving rates on hold was the more prudent choice at its meeting earlier this month, it did signal that there was more easing in the pipeline. Our sense is that the Bank... 22nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Some more musings on very long-dated JGBs The result of this weekend’s Upper House election in Japan may not reverse the recent rout at the very long end of the JGB market when it re-opens after a holiday on Monday, given the possibility that... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus How the AI race will reshape global energy markets Artificial intelligence’s share of global electricity consumption is set to at least double by 2030, to around 3% of the total, and could drive almost half of electricity consumption growth in the US... 21st July 2025 · 15 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is Japan’s fiscal situation reaching a breaking point? 23rd July 2025, 9:00AM BST The LDP’s weak performance in the Upper House elections signals pressure for looser fiscal policy, just as the Bank of Japan is constrained from tackling rising inflation in the face
Climate Economics Update Trade truce lifts China’s green tech exports The US-China trade truce and rebound in US demand helped lift China’s New Three export volumes to a record high in June. Although the strength in green exports is vulnerable to renewed tariff... 21st July 2025 · 2 mins read
