Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Stretched affordability bodes poorly for housing cycle

Although Australian house prices edged up a notch in November, we remain sceptical about prospects for a second wind in the housing cycle. Given that the RBA is unlikely to provide interest-rate...

2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 24)

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea’s interest rate cut, falling inflation in Singapore

The Bank of Korea surprised most analysts (although not us) when it cut interest rates at its scheduled meeting yesterday. The weakness of today’s activity data makes us more confident in our view...

29th November 2024 · 5 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But this tailwind is unlikely to be sustained beyond a couple of quarters. And US tariffs will soon hurt China’s...

29th November 2024 · 0 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities

For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that...

29th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Coffee price 🏒; OPEC+ in can-kicking mode

Fans of hockey-stick graphs would appreciate recent developments in the coffee market, where prices have surged by 30%+ this month on the back of poor growing weather in Brazil. History suggests that...

29th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads

Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in...

29th November 2024 · 5 mins read

India Rapid Response

India GDP (Q3 2024)

GDP figures show the economy slowed sharply last quarter, and we expect economic activity to struggle over the coming quarters. That bolsters the case for policy loosening, but the recent jump in...

29th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

US import tariffs: your questions answered

We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked.

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Chart Pack

Asia Chart Pack (November 2024)

With GDP growth set to struggle and inflation to remain low, central banks are likely to continue to cut interest rates over the coming months. Overall, we expect most central banks to cut rates by...

29th November 2024 · 0 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to cut rates in Q2 as underlying inflation softens

The renewed pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in October marked the final nail in the coffin for a rate cut before year-end. To be sure, by our measures quarterly trimmed mean inflation is on track to...

29th November 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone

China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would...

29th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Bank of Japan will hike rates further to 1.25% by 2026

The pick-up in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo in November points to the nationwide measure rising further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. With the yen set to remain weak for...

29th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Market (Oct. 2024) & Tokyo CPI (Nov. 2024)

The Tokyo CPI suggests that inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in November, supporting our long-held view that the Bank will hike rates in...

28th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Further interest rate cuts likely next year in Korea

The Bank of Korea cut interest rates again today by a further 25bps (to 3.00%) and made clear in its statement that more easing is on the way. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will...

28th November 2024 · 3 mins read