China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.)

Both bank lending and broad credit growth hit fresh lows in October in a sign that monetary easing hasn’t done enough to drive a substantial turnaround in private credit demand. And after last week’s...

12th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. With the Bank of Japan sounding more upbeat at their October meeting and...

12th November 2024 · 1 min read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct. 2024)

Headline CPI and PPI inflation both fell further in October. But core inflation edged up and factory gate prices fell more slowly in m/m terms, a sign that recent stimulus efforts are having some...

11th November 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

What happened to the fiscal stimulus?

Today’s fiscal announcement was far smaller and less detailed than many had hoped for. The explanation, we think, is that China’s leadership sees less need for stimulus than most commentators (we’re...

8th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Assessing the impacts of Trump and China stimulus

Despite his pledges to “drill, baby, drill” and dramatically raise tariffs on China, we suspect that the net impact of Trump’s policies on energy and industrial metals prices will probably be small...

8th November 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Weekly

How would China retaliate?

China’s exporters are still thriving and may do even better in the near term as customers prepare for big increases in tariffs next year. China’s leadership has had plenty of time, and the experience...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency

We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

China Rapid Response

China's fiscal announcement falls short of stimulus

Today’s fiscal announcement is another disappointment for those expecting substantial stimulus.

8th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Weak yen strengthens case for year-end rate hike

The policies proposed by Donald Trump may well end up providing a small net boost to Japan’s economy. While higher tariffs will result in a small fall in export volumes, it now seems likely that the...

8th November 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

MAGA meets Make in India

The Trump trade has pushed the rupee to a fresh low this week and we think further weakness lies ahead. But big moves in the currency are unlikely given the prospect of FX intervention by the RBI...

8th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0

The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

OPEC+ and China, not Trump, will drive prices in 2025 Trump’s election victory won’t have a big impact on commodity markets in the short term. US oil and gas production is near record highs and prices...

7th November 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Weakness in productivity growth partly structural

The recent weakness in productivity growth is only partly due to a cyclical hangover from the pandemic as it also reflects the structural weakness in investment. With investment growth set to remain...

7th November 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Update

Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China

Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP. The...

7th November 2024 · 6 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Oct. 2024)

Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in more than two years, and export volumes picked up too. We expect shipments to stay strong in the coming months – any drag from potential Trump tariffs may...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read