Asset Allocation Update

East Asian equities could outperform again before long

Equity markets in East Asia suffered very sharp declines earlier this week, but have generally recovered since. We think the rebound has scope to go a lot further as recession fears in the US prove...

9th August 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC to remain timid despite renminbi turnaround

The recent batch of weaker-than-expected US data and resulting global market fallout hasn’t significantly altered China’s economic outlook. While US recession risks have risen somewhat, a soft landing...

8th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Market optimism for RBA rate cuts seems misplaced

We're sending this Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have largely shrugged off...

8th August 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Update

RBI to ease policy by year-end

The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation...

8th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Bank of Japan will still press ahead with another hike

We're sending this Japan Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have calmed following the turmoil earlier this...

8th August 2024 · 4 mins read

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Aug. 2024)

The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation...

8th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Philippines GDP (Q2, 2024)

The economy slowed sharply in Q2 and we expect below trend growth to persist over the rest of the year as tight monetary policy, slower growth in remittances and soft export demand weigh on activity...

8th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

China, not a US slowdown, the key for industrial metals

Following another leg down in industrial metals prices, this time due to growing worries about a US recession and the broader financial market carnage, we still think that prices will fall further...

7th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Is the yen’s rally – and all that went with it – over?

We’re not so sure the yen’s gains are done, even though it sagged earlier today.

7th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Update

The financial stability risks from recent market moves

Even though it’s difficult to identify what could have broken as a result of the recent rapid market moves, a stronger yen is a bigger threat to the health of Japan’s financial institutions than...

7th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ to kickstart its easing cycle next week

We are in the minority of forecasters who expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hand down a 25bp rate cut at its meeting next week. Moreover, with excess capacity in the economy rising rapidly, we...

7th August 2024 · 5 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Jul. 2024)

Growth in export values slowed last month, but this was mainly due to lower export prices. Export volumes remained near record highs. We expect outbound shipments to stay strong for a while, not least...

7th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2024)

Although employment growth in Q2 was stronger than most had anticipated, it didn’t keep the unemployment rate from climbing higher. What’s more, a look under the hood suggests the labour market is in...

7th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo

Sentiment has improved in Asian markets today, especially in Japan where equities have rallied very strongly. We think there are a few observations worth noting of relevance for global markets.

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

With RBA remaining hawkish, rate cuts will have to wait

Although the RBA left rates on hold today, it poured cold water on market expectations that it will loosen policy later this year. With the economy still running above its speed limit, we continue to...

6th August 2024 · 3 mins read