China Economics Update China’s dovish policy shift may not be enough The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference provides more detailed forward guidance on plans to adopt a more supportive policy stance next year – there will be more rate cuts and a... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) The fall in headline consumer price inflation to back within the RBI's target range in November, along with the change of leadership at the central bank into a seemingly less hawkish direction, mean... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.25% by mid-2026 The outcome of the Bank’s upcoming meeting is highly uncertain but we still think that a 25bp rate hike is more likely than not. And with the yen set to remain weaker for longer and wage growth set to... 12th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2024) With the labour market still firing on all cylinders, there’s little need for the RBA to rush to loosen policy. Accordingly, we still think the Bank won’t deliver its first rate cut before next May. 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: A tougher year ahead After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 10th December 2024 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will only cut interest rates in May The RBA sounded more dovish today and it’s looking increasingly likely that it will lower interest rates sooner rather than later. While a downside surprise in Q4 inflation could trigger a February... 10th December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Nov. 2024) Export growth slowed sharply last month but we doubt this signals the end of China’s recent export boom. We expect exports to accelerate again in the coming months, supported by gains in... 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 2024) 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Is this a new dawn for China’s stock market? The Hang Seng index enjoyed another stimulus-related boost today but we’ve seen similar spikes before. For now, we’d caution against interpreting the latest developments as confirmation large-scale... 9th December 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India’s government appoints new RBI governor India’s government has just appointed Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). He will replace the Shaktikanta Das following six years at the helm. The... 9th December 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Dec. 24) The Politburo has just concluded its December meeting, which focuses foremost on economic affairs. After 14 years of monetary policy being officially characterised as “prudent”, the meeting readout... 9th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly What next for Korea? The longer the political crisis in Korea drags on, the worse the economic consequences will be. Consumer spending is likely to be affected and there will also be disruption if the country’s powerful... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ delay won’t prevent oil price falls The decision by OPEC+ to delay unwinding some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 appears to have provided food for thought to both oil bulls and bears. However, although the announced plans... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee’s decline won’t prevent eventual rate cuts On the face of it, the fall in the rupee to record lows poses a dilemma for the Reserve Bank’s MPC, which earlier today voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But the bigger picture is that... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
