Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s two-speed economy to soften in 2026 Saudi Arabia’s economy strengthened over the course of 2025 as the resumption of oil output hikes fuelled growth. But as that boost starts to fade and fiscal consolidation is ramped up against the... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical risks mask a fundamentally bearish oil market The building tensions between Iran and the US have driven Brent crude prices to a six-month high. That said, we think that the historical example of last year’s 12-day war, and a well-supplied oil... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What if the US strikes Iran (again)? The build-up of US military forces in the Middle East has led to growing concerns about an attack on Iran and has pushed up oil prices. In light of these developments, we are re-sending this... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly The Arctic strikes back? In a week dominated by President Trump’s pursuit of Greenland, it is perhaps ironic that an anticipated blast of cold air from the Arctic has sent the price of natural gas in the US soaring. Henry Hub... 23rd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Trump’s threats strain US-Europe energy relationship Strains in US-Europe relations under President Trump mean that European policymakers may perceive the region’s growing dependence on the US for energy to be a strategic vulnerability. This is not as... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of fraying Saudi-UAE ties Frictions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have broken out into the open in the last few weeks. But even if the situation were to escalate, the near-term economic impact would probably be limited. If... 22nd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Iran spillovers, CEE activity, Russian inflation spike The spillover effects for economies in Emerging Europe from the protests in Iran this week will largely depend on how commodity prices move. From a political standpoint, the protests are another blow... 16th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Higher EU gas prices won’t last; a 1970s-esque gold market? The fact that EU natural gas prices rallied this week, even after tensions in the Middle East had de-escalated, suggests that the prospect of cold weather and short covering by speculative investors... 16th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Iran instability a bigger headache than Venezuela The risks to the oil market from growing instability in Iran are much greater than in Venezuela. This is not only because Iran produces much more oil itself, but there are also a greater number of... 14th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Venezuelan oil only a small threat to Canadian output The likely increase in Venezuela’s oil output in the next few years will cause some pain for Canadian producers, but it is unlikely to have a major impact on GDP growth. 13th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Protests in Iran: the economic and oil market implications It’s unclear how the protests that have spread across Iran will develop and how they will affect the ruling regime and the oil sector. But the prospect of disruption to Iranian energy output presents... 12th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Investors prepare for Venezuelan oil Although Venezuela is well known for having vast oil reserves, it is likely to require a number of years and significant investment to meaningfully increase the... 8th January 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Update 5 key questions on the “shadow fleet” The seizure of the Marinera oil tanker by the US has put the “shadow fleet” under the spotlight, with some estimates suggesting it now accounts for ~20% of global tanker capacity. While a concerted... 8th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on Venezuela’s oil sector In light of the acute attention on Venezuela’s oil sector, this Update answers five key questions on the potential for oil production in the country. 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Venezuela? Venezuela’s economy has suffered one of the largest contractions in GDP during peacetime which in part reflects woes in its oil sector, but also the undermining of private businesses and the... 5th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Venezuela’s vast energy potential to remain untapped Despite President Trump’s obvious desire for US oil companies to ramp up activity in Venezuela, lower oil prices and political uncertainty will frustrate efforts to exploit its vast energy potential... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
