Commodities Focus

Assessing geopolitical risk in the oil market

This Focus introduces a new tool in our oil analysis toolkit that allows us to examine and highlight how oil traders’ market positioning changes over time. This new tool will be particularly useful...

19th November 2025 · 14 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

What to make of euro-zone inflation differentials

Next year, inflation is likely to remain higher in Spain and Germany than in Italy and France. But unlike in the 2000s, inflation differentials are not currently a sign that unsustainable imbalances...

19th November 2025 · 9 mins read

Commodities Update

5 key questions about AI and demand for commodities

This Update examines five key questions about AI-related demand for commodities, and the economic consequences of potential future disruptions to their supply.

19th November 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Will the Orinoco (oil) flow?

Nicolás Maduro has probably never heard of Enya, but he will nonetheless be hoping that the US naval build-up in the Caribbean simply sails away. Although a US military engagement with Venezuela could...

14th November 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Delays to US LNG won’t prevent gas prices from falling

A combination of delays to LNG export capacity in the US and greater demand for natural gas from AI data centres will, all else equal, constrain the supply of LNG over the coming years. However...

12th November 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Easing pain for US grains; is OPEC+ changing its tune again?

Although China announced the resumption of its purchases of US wheat this week, we doubt that this will be enough to buck the downwards trend in wheat prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s decision to pause any...

7th November 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE keeps up Gulf AI momentum, Qatar-Egypt deal

AI-related investments in the UAE this week add to signs that the US is using access to AI technologies to take the Gulf economies away from China’s sphere of influence. It may also reflect the...

6th November 2025 · 8 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2025)

Plenty of oil on water; revising down our gold forecast While the fallout from US sanctions on Russian oil majors has yet to manifest in the data, Russian seaborne oil exports are strong, and a wider...

5th November 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s worsening twin deficits reinforce need for austerity

Saudi Arabia’s twin budget and current account deficits have widened on the back of low oil export receipts and this trend is likely to continue over the coming quarters. While the adjustment to low...

5th November 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3 2025, Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by 1.4% q/q in Q3 according to this morning flash estimate, which translated into a pick-up in the year-on-year growth rate from 3.9% in Q2 to 5.0% - the fastest pace...

30th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025)

Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years supported...

29th October 2025 · 0 mins read

Commodities Update

A primer on AI and electricity demand

While data centres will remain a small share of global electricity consumption, the uneven spread of their power demands means their influence on power markets will be felt much more acutely in...

28th October 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record its fastest rate of GDP...

28th October 2025 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Market scepticism over fresh sanctions on Russian oil

While the threat of fresh US sanctions on Russian oil producers drove crude prices up by ~8% this week, market participants appear to be treating the risk with a degree of scepticism. That leaves the...

24th October 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil up the ante

On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil...

23rd October 2025 · 5 mins read