Latin America Economics Update Middle East tensions may support Venezuela’s oil sector Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Oil prices and the stock market Many of the usual relationships between oil prices and equities haven’t held over recent months. This Update explores the reason for that, and what may lie in store for energy equities and the broader... 16th April 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update The risks to inflation posed by energy prices Our analysis shows that for CPI inflation to get stuck above 2.0% it would require oil prices and UK wholesale gas prices to rise to $110 per barrel and 150 pence per therm respectively. And for CPI... 15th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran drone strike & the oil market implications There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Precious metals rise again; gas markets unstable The stronger-than-expected US CPI data for March may have sent the dollar and Treasury yields higher but commodity prices largely shrugged off the news. Indeed, precious metals rose strongly this week... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update A firm start to the year for China’s commodity imports China’s energy and industrial metal imports were generally strong in the first quarter. We expect them to hold up well in the coming months as fiscal stimulus continues to support construction... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Tentative signs of coal’s demise in China in 2024 A resurgence in hydropower in China this year combined with the continued rapid expansion of its wind, solar and nuclear power capabilities may pave the way for 2024 to mark the start of a steady... 10th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Consulate strike and the threat of a Iran-Israel war The Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria this week has ratcheted up tensions in the region and the threat of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel is at its highest since the war in Gaza... 4th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to cool, but metals to hold firm for now We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent... 4th April 2024 · 33 mins read
Commodities Weekly The copper supply squeeze begins to bite It was generally a strong week for commodity prices despite the US dollar nudging higher. Oil prices rose by ~3% after the IEA revised its forecasts towards a tighter oil market and following the... 15th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Lower US oil supply in 2025 to be offset elsewhere We expect global crude production to rise by around 2.5% in 2025 as the unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary supply cuts stretches all through next year. But non-OPEC+ oil producing nations will also play... 14th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China NPC is pro-growth, but not enough to lift prices China’s government is planning further fiscal loosening and hinting at rate cuts this year, with the aim of boosting economic activity. We think the policy backdrop is sufficient to support... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ kicking the can down the road Despite OPEC+’s decision to extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of June, we still forecast oil prices to drop back by end-2024. We continue to expect OPEC+ to raise output in the latter... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM winners and losers from the green transition The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and... 4th March 2024 · 14 mins read
