Commodities Update

Venezuela blockade poses limited upside to oil prices

The US blockade on sanctioned oil from Venezuela crystallises a key risk that has overshadowed the oil market in recent months. That said, the upside risks for oil prices are limited, not least...

17th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Dec. '25)

The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most...

16th December 2025 · 0 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Record-high metals prices to fall back in 2026

The outlook for oil is dominated by an abundance of supply, which will continue to weigh on prices over our forecast horizon. Meanwhile, although structural demand factors will keep gold and silver...

15th December 2025 · 22 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

SSA set for its strongest growth streak in over a decade

The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most...

15th December 2025 · 19 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Surge in silver prices will go into reverse next year

While some analysts have pinned the record-breaking silver rally on structural forces, we think the scale and speed of price increases suggest that market exuberance spilling over from the gold rally...

12th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s non-oil economy faces growing headwinds in 2026

The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Copper hits all time high but we expect prices to ease lower

The rally in copper prices to an all-time high has its roots in rising supply concerns, particularly following the announcement by a group of Chinese smelters that they intend to cut output by 10% in...

5th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Dec. 2025)

Copper’s supply crunch masks weakening demand The rally in copper, which has driven prices to all-time nominal highs, has its roots in supply concerns, which are likely to persist into 2026. But we...

5th December 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Strengthening growth and shifting alignments

The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest pace of GDP growth (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2011 next year. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s...

4th December 2025 · 22 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2025)

Growth prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa look bright, with inflation low or falling for most and a monetary easing cycle well under way, with many central banks likely to cut rates deeper than most...

28th November 2025 · 0 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Fall in EU natural gas prices has further to run

The recent fall in the EU natural gas benchmark to below €30 per MWh has its roots in a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, but we are sceptical that any agreement would have much direct...

28th November 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

War and peace in energy markets

While crude oil and natural gas prices have fallen as the US attempts to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, we think that the impact of a formal end to the war on prices would be...

21st November 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our latest forecasts and calls to reflect key developments across the region. We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record very...

20th November 2025 · 1 min read

Commodities Focus

Assessing geopolitical risk in the oil market

This Focus introduces a new tool in our oil analysis toolkit that allows us to examine and highlight how oil traders’ market positioning changes over time. This new tool will be particularly useful...

19th November 2025 · 14 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

What to make of euro-zone inflation differentials

Next year, inflation is likely to remain higher in Spain and Germany than in Italy and France. But unlike in the 2000s, inflation differentials are not currently a sign that unsustainable imbalances...

19th November 2025 · 9 mins read