Africa Economics Update SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Assessing the impacts of Trump and China stimulus Despite his pledges to “drill, baby, drill” and dramatically raise tariffs on China, we suspect that the net impact of Trump’s policies on energy and industrial metals prices will probably be small... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs... 7th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) OPEC+ and China, not Trump, will drive prices in 2025 Trump’s election victory won’t have a big impact on commodity markets in the short term. US oil and gas production is near record highs and prices... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The curious case of negative Texan natural gas prices Negative natural gas prices at a few trading hubs in West Texas, including the Waha Hub, have curiously become the norm this year. This Update looks at five key questions on the topic. 6th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update If at first OPEC+ don’t succeed, delay, delay again OPEC+’s latest delay to its long-held plans to raise output will have a marginal impact on oil supply over 2025. We still suspect that OPEC+’s most likely course of action is to gradually increase... 4th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The US election and implications for MENA Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel... 31st October 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s instability heightens default risks The outbreak of unrest in Mozambique after contested elections is unlikely to have a large impact on growth in the near term. But any attempts by the government to loosen fiscal policy to appease... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Shell oil sale, SARB 25bp or 50bp cut next? The Nigerian authorities rejection of Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business marked the latest attempt by a multinational to divest from Nigeria – and the prospect of lower foreign investment makes... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for a slowdown Saudi Arabia’s economy is making a steady recovery as solid growth in the non-oil sector offsets low oil production. Growth will continue to pick up over the coming quarters, but the drivers will... 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil risk premium shrinks; China leaves us guessing The risk premium in oil prices collapsed this week after reports suggested that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in any retaliatory strike. With the fundamentals of weak oil... 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Equities Focus Dim outlook for energy equities This Focus assesses the outlook for US energy equities, which have come into the spotlight of late amid swings in oil prices. In short, we expect the sector to underperform its peers over the coming... 18th October 2024 · 12 mins read
Commodities Update How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps? With the means, motive and opportunity for Saudi Arabia to undergo a reversal in oil policy falling into place, this Update thinks through the possible ramifications of such a move. In short... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Answering your questions on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss progress on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme and the implications for the Kingdom’s economic outlook. (An on-demand recording is... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update It is when, not if, Saudi Arabia opens the oil taps Although the focus in the oil market has shifted to geopolitical risks and potential short-term supply disruptions, just as importantly, we think the possibility that Saudi Arabia could open the... 14th October 2024 · 3 mins read
