Energy Watch US natural gas prices to rebound despite supply boom US natural gas prices have fallen to around $2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) due to soaring supply and the mild winter in North America. But they now look far too low relative to... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil prices peaking? The support to commodity prices from the general improvement in investor confidence, which had been fostered earlier in the first quarter by better economic data from the US and China and the ECB’s... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus What will bring oil prices down? The price of Brent has remained close to $125 per barrel despite verbal intervention from Saudi Arabia and the threat of an early release of official stocks led by the US. We are therefore nudging up... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Jump in oil prices is a net benefit for Latin America Latin America is one of the few regions to have benefitted from the $25pb jump in oil prices over the past six months or so: higher prices provide a prop to regional growth and, for now at least, the... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global outlook still points to lower commodity prices A quick review of recent developments in the world economy supports our relatively downbeat forecasts for the prices of the commodities, notably oil and industrial metals, most sensitive to global... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly High oil prices will not lift inflation The pick-up in oil prices in recent weeks has caused some to fear that inflation in Asia will soon rise sharply. These fears are over-blown. Even if oil prices stayed at current levels, inflation... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Do rising equity prices offset higher gas prices? Households are currently being subjected to a number of diverse and often opposing economic forces, but most will cancel each other out and we still anticipate consumption growth of just above 2% this... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s current account deficit not just about oil The recent spike in oil prices will make it harder for Turkey to rein in its current account deficit. But there is more to Turkey’s current account shortfall than simply the high cost of energy... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big is the Iran premium in oil prices? Estimates of the amount that the tensions between the West and Iran have added to global oil prices range from $5 to $25 per barrel (pb). Our best guess is towards the bottom of this range – perhaps... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Mar.) The performance of equity markets across the Arab world has diverged since the beginning of the year. Stock markets in Egypt, Dubai and Saudi outperfromed the rest of the region and indeed the MSCI... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets reassess QE outlook UK interest rate expectations have started to edge up and UK equities have underperformed those overseas as investors have reacted to tentative signs in the Bank of England’s Inflation Report and from... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Cuts to fuel subsidies mean no more rate cuts in Indonesia Having cut interest rates by a cumulative 100bp over the past six months, Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates on hold today, as expected. With upcoming cuts to fuel price subsidies likely to push inflation... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why would Russia benefit from lower oil prices? The numerous benefits of high oil prices for the Russian economy have concealed the bigger picture that over the past decade they have also served as a hindrance to much-needed political and economic... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Focus on oil prices neglects wider commodity picture The recent rise in oil prices has sparked fears that CPI inflation will not fall as fast as hoped. However, the focus on oil prices ignores the fact that other commodity prices have risen by less, if... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will oil continue to outperform? Many of the usual relationships between oil and other commodity prices have broken down in the past year, with the cost of crude rising to its highest level since 2008 while the prices of key... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investment reliant on sustained high oil prices With oil prices riding high, the outlook for business investment this year looks pretty good. We would feel more comfortable, however, if investment plans were not so dependent on the fate of one... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
