Energy Watch Coal prices have further to fall The recent weakness of global coal prices is relatively easy to explain, as it reflects a straightforward mix of surging supply, sluggish economic activity, falling oil prices and the boom in the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi's $100 "target" won't set a floor on oil prices OPEC is almost certain to maintain its official output ceiling at 30 million barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting on Thursday. This decision would not preclude some cuts in production in the coming... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts We have revised some of our key market forecasts for government bonds, equities, commodities and currencies. The new forecasts are presented in the table at the bottom of this page. The major changes... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More price falls to come, led by oil Other analysts are reportedly “shell-shocked” by the sharp declines in the prices of oil and other commodities in May, but we had already been braced for the fall-out from an escalation of the crisis... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack May's meltdown The prices of industrial and agricultural commodities were hit hard in May by the escalating crisis in the euro-zone and worries over demand from China (as we had anticipated). In particular, oil fell... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Easing Iran tensions to undermine oil prices further Concerns about the crisis in the euro-zone, fears of a “hard landing” in China and weaker data in the US have displaced tensions with Iran as the main driver of global oil prices. Nonetheless, a... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower petrol prices to add some fuel to consumer recovery The recent fall in oil prices should, if maintained, bring petrol prices down by enough to boost consumers’ annual disposable incomes by about 0.2%. However, this will not be enough to stop real pay... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent on course to end year below $100 Crude oil prices have remained weak after last week’s sharp falls, largely due to concerns over the US economy and the escalating problems in Europe. We expect these pressures to ebb and flow over the... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Opening up Mexican oil sector could pump growth The emergence of a political consensus in favour of opening up the oil industry in Mexico has increased the likelihood that the winner of July’s presidential election will take steps to increase the... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growing risk of fiscal crises in the oil-poor Arab countries One of the most striking – and often overlooked – developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) following the Arab Spring has been the stark divergence in the fiscal health of the region’s... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Searching for direction Commodity prices as a whole were little changed in April. The drought-related rise in soybean prices has drawn some media interest, but this was more than offset by falls for other agriculturals... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Search for safe havens set to resume We think tougher times lie ahead for risky assets. Enthusiasm for equities is likely to be curbed by a turn in the US profit cycle, an absence of additional unconventional monetary stimulus from the... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update European shale gas adds to risks to Russia’s growth model European shale gas reserves will take many years to develop, but in time the impact on Russia’s energy exports could be substantial. We estimate that Russia’s revenues from gas exports to Europe may... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weather won't keep US natural gas prices down for long The bulk of the decline in the price of US natural gas, from $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) early in 2010 to around $3 at the start of 2012, can be explained by the surge in supply. But... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets Monitor (Apr.) Consistent with trends in other emerging markets, most of the Middle East’s stock markets have dropped back from the highs reached earlier this year. While Egypt’s fall is perhaps the most striking... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA’s oil market outlook still too bullish The IEA’s latest assessment that the “tide of remorseless tightening in the oil market” appears to have turned is surely right. Indeed, this has already been reflected in the levelling out of crude... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
