Commodities Outlook Risks still on downside but prices looking more reasonable After two to three years of generally poor performance, many commodity prices have now fallen to levels that are starting to appear attractive again. We still think the near-term risks generally lie... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the Fed taper be a game-changer? The question of exactly when the US Fed will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has understandably been the focus of much analysis and speculation (including by ourselves). There are six... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait reform is likely to be a long journey Comments by Kuwait’s ruling Emir ahead of the reopening of the National Assembly suggest that the government has recognised the need for wholesale economic reform. Even so, we think that reform... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Increased efficiency to sustain shale boom Much of the surge in US oil production has come from improvements in drilling technology and processes rather than an increase in the number of rigs. These improvements should reduce costs and allow... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Constrained supply keeping oil prices high Oil prices have been lifted again by hopes of stronger demand and by disruption to supply in the Middle East, but we do not expect these supports to be sustained. The return of supply, currently being... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent - WTI spread to fall back again We expect the Brent-WTI spread to gradually decrease from about $6 per barrel today to zero over the next year, as logistical constraints in Cushing and Louisiana ease. 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Oil production alone won’t solve Ghana’s deficit problems On the face of it, comments yesterday from Ghana’s Finance Minister that oil revenues have been larger than expected this year should ease some concerns over the sustainability of the country’s twin... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Detente between the US and Iran to undermine oil prices The markets and media have understandably been focused on developments in Syria for the last few months. However, signs of a possible thaw in the relationship between Washington and Tehran could have... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update If the oil market is well supplied, what's keeping prices high? In contrast to OPEC, we think that supply outages from Libya and other producers, as well as wider geopolitical tensions, are playing a key role in keeping oil prices high. 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Favourable oil prices could spur business investment The rebound in domestic crude oil prices over the first half of this year has improved the outlook for Canadian business investment. Overall, this suggests some upside risk to GDP outlook of 1.5% in... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will US energy exports be a game-changer? The surge in US oil and gas production in recent years has fuelled expectations that the country could eventually become a major energy exporter. Indeed, the US already runs trade surpluses in coal... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Latest jump in oil prices looks unsustainable Only a small part of the recent run-up in oil prices is due to the turmoil in Egypt. But whatever the reason for the latest jump in the cost of crude, the fragility of the global economic recovery and... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: naira devaluation on the cards Our forecasts for a fall in oil prices, coupled with a relatively high rate of domestic inflation, suggest that pressure on the Nigerian naira is likely to build over the next year or so. We think... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi oil sector’s drag on growth starting to ease Saudi Arabia’s activity data for June provide further evidence that the slowdown in growth over the past year or so probably bottomed out in the second quarter. The non-oil sector continues to grow at... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What could be the long term impacts of the shale boom? Shale oil and gas has transformed the energy outlook in the US. However, the impact on the rest of the world has been negligible so far. Other countries are finding it difficult to replicate the... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt in turmoil (again) Egypt’s “second revolution” has made the outlook for the Arab world’s most populous nation highly uncertain. The economy is already extremely fragile – growth is sluggish, unemployment is high and the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
