Commodities Update What’s the right benchmark for US oil prices? The US Energy Information Administration’s recent decision to switch to Brent rather than West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as its reference oil price has reignited the debate about the appropriate... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the US ever achieve energy independence? The rebound in domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas has led to increased speculation that America could become energy independent. The US will become progressively less reliant on oil... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Global growth prospects beyond 2020 Some commentators argue that growth of world per capita income over the coming few decades will be much lower than in the past, because technological progress has slowed or because of the depletion of... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The global fall-out from Middle East tensions The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas has contributed to the recent resilience of oil prices and the fragility of equities. The avoidance of a full-scale ground war in Gaza might... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Middle East break-evens won’t set a floor on oil prices The recent increases in the level of the oil price required to balance government budgets for the major Gulf producers are often cited as a reason to expect the cost of crude to remain high. In... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global oil prices to fall further and remain lower We still expect the price of a barrel of Brent to drop back to around $85 next year, despite threats of a complete halt to Iranian oil exports. Our forecast would also be well below the “fair price”... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan SWF is a (small) step in the right direction On the face of it, yesterday’s announcement from Angolan President José dos Santos that the country has launched a sovereign wealth fund is a positive step towards better management of oil revenues... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread getting silly again The widening differential between the prices of Brent crude and the traditional US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is increasingly hard to justify in terms of the fundamentals of the oil... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector struggling to gain momentum Our activity proxy for Saudi Arabia shows that the economy continues to slow, as growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors starts to ease. Overall GDP growth looks like it slowed to around 4% y/y in... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian oil rush points to “twin-speed” growth Development of the Colombian oil sector will provide an important prop to economic growth over the coming years, but it is not unambiguously good news, particularly for non-commodity exporters. So... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi reports add to downward pressure on oil prices Reports that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase oil supplies may be little new but they support our view that prices are set to fall sharply. As it happens, the Gulf state has already ramped up... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Higher oil output to provide a boost to Saudi growth Saudi Arabia’s recent commitment to maintain oil output at record levels means that our forecast for GDP growth this year is looking too pessimistic. We now expect the economy to expand by around 4.5%... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf’s bond rally last? The impressive rally in dollar-denominated bond markets across the GCC over the past year has seen yields in Qatar and Abu Dhabi hit record lows in recent months, while even those in debt-ridden Dubai... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will bring oil prices back down again? A coordinated release of official stocks is one possible trigger for a correction in oil prices, but we still think that it is neither imminent nor necessary. A more realistic assessment of the... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil and coal prices face multitude of downside risks Oil prices have been boosted by hopes of additional global policy stimulus and fears of a worsening of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but we expect these supports to be shortlived. Possible... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in energy prices unlikely to prevent more stimulus The recent reversal of the 25% or so fall in oil prices earlier this year and the prospect of another round of utility price rises might now mean that CPI inflation struggles to fall below the 2%... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
