Commodities Chart Pack End-June rally on shaky ground June’s price volatility offered something for everyone, with several key commodities seeing unusually large moves either up or down, and, in the case of oil, both over the course of the month. This... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation outlook improves further If core inflation falls as we expect, it now looks like inflation could get as low as 0.5% or so in the early part of next year. 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) April's 0.3% m/m increase in GDP, thanks to a rebound in the volatile mining sector, was slightly stronger than consensus expectations (0.2% m/m) and supports our view that Canada's economy grew... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What effect will Iran sanctions have on oil prices? We maintain our view that the imminent tightening of Western sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have anywhere near as large an impact on global oil prices as many had feared. Demand is weakening and... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela heading for recession in 2013 as oil prices tumble The recent sharp drop in oil prices spells danger for Venezuela. The government may be able to muster sufficient funds to prop up the economy this year. But if oil prices continue to fall and remain... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian Financial Crisis – 15 years on Monday 2nd July marks the 15-year anniversary of the start of the Asian Financial Crisis. In retrospect, the region weathered the crisis and its aftermath well. However, trend growth has slowed... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of Russian inflation We estimate that planned hikes in Russian utility tariffs next month and again in September will add a total of around 2.0%-pts to headline inflation, pushing it to 6.5% by the end of the year. The... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Oil-poor countries could still outperform in the long term The economic prospects for some of the resource-poor Arab countries are brighter than their current conditions suggest. Although political transitions are proving difficult, we still think that they... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower oil price will not boost euro-zone growth The recent sharp fall in the oil price has prompted us to revise down our euro-zone CPI inflation forecast for this year and next. But this will not prevent the region from falling into a deep... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Are lower oil prices a blessing for Asia? The recent collapse in oil prices will help most Asian economies, with oil-intensive Thailand and India benefiting the most. The trouble though is that oil prices are falling because the global... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Plunging gasoline prices to fuel real consumption A further fall in gasoline prices to close to $3 a gallon, from a recent peak of $4, will provide a near-term kick to real consumption growth just at a time when it appears to be fading fast. But a... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Collapse in oil prices will not save world economy The slump in oil prices results from faltering global demand and growing fears of an escalation of the euro-zone crisis. As such, it is wishful thinking to imagine that cheap oil can itself generate a... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Where next for oil prices? The $30 slump since early May, which has taken Brent below $90 per barrel (pb), suggests that the global benchmark oil price could hit our end-2012 target of $85 even sooner than we had anticipated... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Coal prices have further to fall The recent weakness of global coal prices is relatively easy to explain, as it reflects a straightforward mix of surging supply, sluggish economic activity, falling oil prices and the boom in the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi's $100 "target" won't set a floor on oil prices OPEC is almost certain to maintain its official output ceiling at 30 million barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting on Thursday. This decision would not preclude some cuts in production in the coming... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
