Commodities Chart Pack A shaky start to 2014 Commodities prices started 2014 on a subdued note as high stocks in the US depressed crude oil while poor manufacturing PMI data from China raised concerns about wider commodity demand. Prices... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Energy efficiency gains to constrain EM demand It is often taken as given that oil demand in the developing world will increase exponentially, driven by buoyant economic activity, leading to ever higher oil prices. However, there is huge scope for... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Risks (mostly) still on the downside Commodities will not of course underperform other assets for ever, especially with end-user demand supported by a strengthening global economy. In comparison, valuations in equity and bond markets are... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran deal underlines downside risks for global oil prices Confirmation that the interim nuclear deal between the major Western powers and Iran will come into force on 20th January is not in itself a game-changer for oil markets. Indeed, in the near-term... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why Iran talks have not (yet) led to much lower oil prices The progress being made in defusing tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme has failed to have a marked impact on global oil prices. In part this is because of renewed disruption elsewhere in the... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Investors glad to put 2013 behind them The end of 2013 marked another year of dismal returns for commodity investors. The prospects for supply have been the key driver of most commodity prices, especially for agriculturals. The main... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira comes under fire A high-level corruption scandal has taken its toll on Turkey’s financial markets over the past month. The stock market has been the second worst performer among those of the emerging economies that we... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How much control does OPEC still have over oil prices? The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has of course had a significant influence on oil prices since its creation in 1960. However, a combination of internal division and growing... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent - WTI spread to narrow as both prices fall back The widening of the spreads between the prices of Brent and US benchmark crudes should reverse over the next year as new pipelines ease the logistical constraints that have contributed to the glut of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rebound in oil sector supports Saudi Q3 GDP growth Saudi Arabian Q3 GDP data showed that growth picked up as a rebound in the oil sector more than offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Looking ahead, growth may accelerate over the coming... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian economy may be finding its feet November's PMI data provide further evidence that the Egyptian economy may be finding its feet after a tumultuous summer. Meanwhile, the Saudi PMI pointed to a pick-up in growth in the non-oil sector... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply and Fed fears dominate The prospects for supply have been the key driver of most commodity prices in the last few months. The main exception is precious metals, where sentiment has been undermined – perhaps excessively so –... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What could the deal with Iran mean for oil prices? The deal between Iran and the West is unlikely to result in an immediate increase in oil supplies, but it does lay the groundwork for a potentially much more significant agreement next year. We expect... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil prices to end the decade much lower The price of a barrel of Brent has remained well above $100 for most of the last three years, due in part to uncertainties created by the “Arab Spring”. However, over the next five to ten years, a... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan oil boom masks longer-term problems A boom in oil production should ensure that economic growth in Angola remains strong over the next couple of years. But history suggests that it is difficult to sustain strong energy-led growth over a... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big an impact could an Iran deal have on oil prices? Iran and the West appear to be edging towards an interim deal that should ease tensions over Iran's nuclear programme, despite the impasse in Geneva at the weekend. Sanctions on Iran's oil exports... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
