Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's public finances not as strong as they seem At first sight Russia’s public finances appear a picture of health when compared to those in the developed world. But a growing dependence on high and rising oil prices as a source of revenue is a... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Libyan regime change to undermine oil prices further The market response today has been muted, but we still think that regime change in Libya could ultimately knock $10 from the price of a barrel of Brent. 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What next for oil prices? The recent bounce in oil prices, at least prior to today’s drops, had been interpreted by many as strong evidence of underlying tightness in the global market for crude. In contrast, we continue to... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia would benefit from a further fall in oil prices Oil prices have slipped back on fears that the world economy may be heading for another downturn. What’s more, our in-house view is that oil prices have further to fall. The impact in emerging Asia of... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf economies withstand an oil price shock? The drop in the oil price over the past two weeks has led to concerns that the Gulf States will have to scale back their recent spending plans. Admittedly, the current budget commitments are likely to... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasury yields plummet despite debt spat The 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen very sharply since the end of the second quarter. The principal reason for the drop appears to be a reassessment of the prospects for monetary policy in light... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: At the mercy of oil prices Fiscal profligacy and a lack of prudence in managing commodity revenues have left Ecuador highly exposed to a downturn in global oil prices. Limited financing options are likely to turn up the heat on... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA pledge should help cap oil prices The International Energy Agency (IEA) decided not to announce a further tapping of oil from strategic reserves today after the 30-day review of the release of 60m barrels last month. However, the... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Libyan end-game to knock at least $10 off oil prices We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent, currently $119, to fall back to $85 by the end of the year. This forecast is based largely on persistent sluggishness in demand, a stronger dollar... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Have oil prices fallen enough to fuel a global recovery? The recent fall in oil prices should help to stabilise global growth in the coming months. But prices would need to drop significantly more to offset other headwinds that will pick up further in 2012... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil prices to fall further (and not just because of the IEA) Oil prices have probably overreacted to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) decision to release emergency stockpiles, just as they overreacted (in the opposite direction) to OPEC’s decision to... 25th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC Quotas (Jun.) OPEC’s decision to maintain its current output quotas, rather than raise them, will disappoint many after the encouraging signals from Gulf delegates in the last 24 hours. However, oil production is... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gulf fiscal pressures need not mean higher oil prices Major Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia now need higher prices to balance their government’s books, but these break-even rates are unlikely to act as a significant constraint on how far or... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What next for oil prices? Despite this week’s partial recovery, we continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent crude to drop back below $90 by the end of the year, as global demand slows, the Middle East risk premium... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: where's the oil price boost? The fact that Russian growth slowed in Q1 despite the surge in oil prices suggests that all is not well in Emerging Europe’s largest economy. Growth should accelerate over the second half of the year... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The end of QE2 – expect the unexpected As growth slows and inflation subsides, expectations of higher interest rates in the major developed economies should be scaled back significantly. The end of QE2 in the US should neither rattle... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
