UK Economics Update Lower petrol prices to add some fuel to consumer recovery The recent fall in oil prices should, if maintained, bring petrol prices down by enough to boost consumers’ annual disposable incomes by about 0.2%. However, this will not be enough to stop real pay... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent on course to end year below $100 Crude oil prices have remained weak after last week’s sharp falls, largely due to concerns over the US economy and the escalating problems in Europe. We expect these pressures to ebb and flow over the... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Opening up Mexican oil sector could pump growth The emergence of a political consensus in favour of opening up the oil industry in Mexico has increased the likelihood that the winner of July’s presidential election will take steps to increase the... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growing risk of fiscal crises in the oil-poor Arab countries One of the most striking – and often overlooked – developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) following the Arab Spring has been the stark divergence in the fiscal health of the region’s... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Searching for direction Commodity prices as a whole were little changed in April. The drought-related rise in soybean prices has drawn some media interest, but this was more than offset by falls for other agriculturals... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Search for safe havens set to resume We think tougher times lie ahead for risky assets. Enthusiasm for equities is likely to be curbed by a turn in the US profit cycle, an absence of additional unconventional monetary stimulus from the... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update European shale gas adds to risks to Russia’s growth model European shale gas reserves will take many years to develop, but in time the impact on Russia’s energy exports could be substantial. We estimate that Russia’s revenues from gas exports to Europe may... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weather won't keep US natural gas prices down for long The bulk of the decline in the price of US natural gas, from $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) early in 2010 to around $3 at the start of 2012, can be explained by the surge in supply. But... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets Monitor (Apr.) Consistent with trends in other emerging markets, most of the Middle East’s stock markets have dropped back from the highs reached earlier this year. While Egypt’s fall is perhaps the most striking... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA’s oil market outlook still too bullish The IEA’s latest assessment that the “tide of remorseless tightening in the oil market” appears to have turned is surely right. Indeed, this has already been reflected in the levelling out of crude... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch US natural gas prices to rebound despite supply boom US natural gas prices have fallen to around $2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) due to soaring supply and the mild winter in North America. But they now look far too low relative to... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil prices peaking? The support to commodity prices from the general improvement in investor confidence, which had been fostered earlier in the first quarter by better economic data from the US and China and the ECB’s... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus What will bring oil prices down? The price of Brent has remained close to $125 per barrel despite verbal intervention from Saudi Arabia and the threat of an early release of official stocks led by the US. We are therefore nudging up... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Jump in oil prices is a net benefit for Latin America Latin America is one of the few regions to have benefitted from the $25pb jump in oil prices over the past six months or so: higher prices provide a prop to regional growth and, for now at least, the... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global outlook still points to lower commodity prices A quick review of recent developments in the world economy supports our relatively downbeat forecasts for the prices of the commodities, notably oil and industrial metals, most sensitive to global... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly High oil prices will not lift inflation The pick-up in oil prices in recent weeks has caused some to fear that inflation in Asia will soon rise sharply. These fears are over-blown. Even if oil prices stayed at current levels, inflation... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
