Latin America Economics Update

Answering your questions on Mexico’s election

Our initial response to Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election can be found here. We also held a Drop-in earlier today. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed...

3rd June 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s election: entering the unknown

South Africa’s final election results confirmed that support for the ANC fell far short of a majority, leaving it reliant on a coalition with one of the larger opposition parties to stay in power. The...

3rd June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico’s Election Result

The ruling Morena candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, is on course to be declared the country’s next (and first female) president after Sunday’s election and the party’s coalition also appears to be on...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

India Rapid Response

India General Election 2024

Narendra Modi appears well on course for a third consecutive term as India’s Prime Minister according to exit polls that project another big parliamentary majority for the BJP.

2nd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico heads to the polls, IMF’s optimism about Brazil

Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday and, while Claudia Sheinbaum appears to be a shoo-in to win the presidency, attention will probably focus on the congressional results which will determine her...

31st May 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections: State of play & implications for the SARB

South Africa’s election results have continued to trickle in, but the overriding message since the early hours of the count is that the ANC has fallen well short of a majority. A coalition with one of...

31st May 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Is there a growth dividend from a large government majority?

With both Labour and the Conservatives this week ruling out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, it remains difficult to see how cuts to public services can be avoided after the...

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

What to watch for in a momentous week

India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ set for crunch talks and Egypt’s fiscal reforms

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting could be a stick or twist moment with markets increasingly believing the group will roll over its quotas and voluntary cuts again. If quotas are extended, that risks...

30th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa’s Election

The early results from South Africa’s election which took place yesterday point to the ruling ANC securing a vote share closer to the low end of projections (at just over 40%), increasing the chances...

30th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Labor isn’t wrecking the economy just yet

Labor’s regulatory push can’t be blamed for the recent slump in labour productivity and we aren’t convinced that it will hold back future productivity growth much either. Indeed, we still think that a...

28th May 2024 (Updated 28th May 2024) · 17 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections: Can the ANC hold on? Kenya-US visit

There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s likely vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will...

24th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus

The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Economic tailwind for the election winner

While the economic data released between now and the general election on 4 th July is unlikely to have a big influence on the result, further falls in inflation, interest rates and gilt yields may...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Is PM Modi on the backfoot?

As India’s mammoth general election enters its final week, a narrative that has unfolded in the international media is a waning of popular support for Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read