UK Economics Update

Where are fiscal concerns greatest – the UK, France or US?

With the public finances in the UK in decent shape relative to France and the US, and the new UK government committing to greater fiscal discipline, we think investors are right not to worry as much...

5th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage

The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The key milestones ahead as Starmer enters No. 10

As the dust settles on the election result, there will be a lot of discussion about what comes next. We think Labour may move quickly on its low-cost supply side reforms, such as overhauling planning...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Gridlock likely in France, ECB officials eye July pause

The prospect of a hung parliament in France suggests the country is headed for political gridlock and somewhat looser fiscal policy but that a large-scale fiscal expansion probably won’t materialise...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Modi in Moscow: old friends, new context

Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Moscow next week will irk the West, but it should be read as a sign of India seeking to reap economic gains from its non-aligned status rather than an effort to position...

5th July 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

Labour wins election: Some upside to GDP, inflation and rates

The big shift in the political landscape that has delivered the first Labour government since May 2010 is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at the margin...

5th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Exit Polls: Labour win would create some upside to our GDP, inflation and rate forecasts

The big shift in the political landscape that appears to be delivering a Labour government with a large majority is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at...

4th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of...

4th July 2024 · 8 mins read

US Economics Update

Trump's lead creates conundrum for our forecasts

Following his disastrous debate performance last week, President Joe Biden’s odds of getting re-elected have gone from bad to worse. Former President Donald Trump is now unequivocally the favourite to...

3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt needs to stick to frugality to ease debt fears

Egypt’s government faces a likely further rise in debt servicing costs over the coming year. But the good news is that the budget for the 2024/25 fiscal year (which started this week) reaffirmed the...

3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

French election first-round relief rally might not last

Investors have welcomed the broadly unsurprising results of the first round of the French legislative elections, but the discount on French financial assets is still there and, in our view, likely to...

1st July 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Germany no longer immune to budget trouble

Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While...

1st July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia and the possible implications of MbS as king

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not...

1st July 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

First round results of France’s parliamentary election

The preliminary results of the first round of voting are broadly in line with the final opinion polls, showing that Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition has lost out to both the left and right. But a...

30th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Investors appear unfazed by odds favouring Trump

Incumbent President Biden’s uneven performance during the debate yesterday with his predecessor and challenger, Donald Trump, has reduced Biden’s perceived chance of winning re-election significantly...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read