Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Labor isn’t wrecking the economy just yet

Labor’s regulatory push can’t be blamed for the recent slump in labour productivity and we aren’t convinced that it will hold back future productivity growth much either. Indeed, we still think that a...

28th May 2024 · 17 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections: Can the ANC hold on? Kenya-US visit

There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s likely vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will...

24th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus

The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Economic tailwind for the election winner

While the economic data released between now and the general election on 4 th July is unlikely to have a big influence on the result, further falls in inflation, interest rates and gilt yields may...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Is PM Modi on the backfoot?

As India’s mammoth general election enters its final week, a narrative that has unfolded in the international media is a waning of popular support for Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election

Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence...

23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Markets Update

Worst may not be over yet for South African financial assets

Having underperformed most other EMs since the pandemic, we think that returns of financial assets in South Africa will continue to disappoint. The outlook would worsen if the African National...

23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Focus

South Africa’s election: into the unknown?

South Africa’s upcoming election looks set to herald a new era of coalition government. There are lots of permutations ranging from a centrist ANC-DA coalition to a so-called ‘doomsday coalition’ in...

23rd May 2024 · 18 mins read

India Economics Update

China’s threat to Indian manufacturing

India has made impressive progress in raising its share of global high-end electronics exports over the past few years. But, worryingly, it has failed to capture any additional market share in the...

23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

What will the July general election mean for the economy?

The general election on Thursday 4th July, which the Prime Minister announced today, may usher in a new political era but it is unlikely to lead to a dramatically different economic outlook. The...

22nd May 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Political turmoil undermining Vietnam’s appeal

The political turmoil in Vietnam, which has led to a number of key leaders being sacked from their posts, is undermining the country’s reputation for stability, which until now has been one of its key...

20th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Iran’s succession plans unlikely to fix economic woes

The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power...

20th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

An early look at Germany’s next general election

The next German federal election will be crucial in determining how Germany will respond to its structural economic challenges. This Update answers some key questions on what to expect from the...

20th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

ANC bets on health insurance bill, Nigeria inflation

South African President Ramaphosa's approval of the controversial National Health Insurance bill this week was a clear effort to bolster the ANC’s support ahead of the election. But it also signals...

17th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

DR votes, Lula intervenes, Argentine officials cheer

Dominicans are set to re-elect President Luis Abinader on Sunday and there's widespread hope among investors that his second term will see further measures to improve the public finances. Elsewhere...

17th May 2024 · 7 mins read